AFGANISTANISATION OF PAKISTAN?

PLAY WITH FIRE; HOW LONG YOU REMAIN PROTECTED?

The Taliban is advancing and taking control over new areas in Pakistan. The army has so far failed to contain this advance. The Pakistan army’s offensive has not deterred the Taliban. More than 2 lakh people have been displaced from swat valley itself. According to the UN aid agencies more that 3 lakh people have so far been displaced and have taken shelters in relief camps. The situation in swat, Mingora, Buner, Dir and other adjoining area has fast deteriorating due to heavy fighting between heavily armed Taliban and Pakistan Army. Reports suggest that the fighting has intensified after PM Gilani’s order to the army to clear Swat and other areas from Taliban. Taliban has encircled one Police Station in Mingora town and about 140 Police men are trapped and are likely to be killed if army does not yet send reinforcement and repulse the Taliban fighters.

UNHCR spokesman Ron Redmond has said in the affected areas that an unprecedented human tragedy is imminent in the area and if humanitarian aid like tents, medicines, food, drinking water etc are not made available, large number of people especially women and children would die. It is necessary that this human tragedy should be averted and the fighting should be brought to a logical conclusion soon. So far as the hope of end of hostilities in these areas is concerned, it is not possible in near future.

President Zardari is in Washington to held dialogue with Barrack Obama and Hamid Karzai, the counterparts of USA and Afghanistan. Zardari had to face some tough and embarrassing questions from both media persons and some senators also. He had to face the question that what he had to say about the alleged nexus between ISI and Militants? He could not give any satisfactory answer to this question. Likely its earlier stereotype stand on India; Zardari orchestrated the same rhyme and said that if India withdraw its forces from North Western border so that he can what he says, deploy more force for tackling the Taliban fighters. Zardari further says that he hopes for improving the relation with India after the general election here. Both justifications sound hollow and do not seem acceptable. The advance of Taliban in areas like Mingora, Shangala, Buner, Dir etc had been going unabated and unchecked for years. The so-called peace agreement reached between Pakistan Taliban and Pak government was a milestone in the history of terrorism in this region. It marked the beginning of consolidation of terrorists in Pakistan in much more big way. It also thoroughly undermined the authority of the government. It was perhaps due to this fact the Taliban’ morale was bolstered to a great extent and it ventured into fresh areas like Migora, Shangala, dir etc and captured them. These areas are still under their suzerainty and the writs of the Pakistan government do not run here. Although the PM has ordered his troops to wage an all out war against the Taliban and flush them out within 24 hours, the possibility of waging such war is remote keeping in mind the history and chemistry of Pakistani forces. The unholy nexus between Pakistani army, ISI and Jihad and terrorist elements in Pakistan is an open secret. The startling disclosure of Dr Abdul Kadir Khan, the father of Islamic Nuclear Bomb, had already exposed the nefarious designs of the Islamic Jihadis including Taliban and Al-Qaeda. In fact this whole episode of Taliban should be conceived in this wider perspective. If this Talibanisation of Pakistan goes unchecked and un-deterred, they would be capturing some vital security and strategic installations also within a couple of weeks from now. Tarbela hydro electric power dam is located not too far from Mingora and Swat. This is the place where some of the nuclear fuel and heavy water of Pakistan are kept. This installation is so strategically important that its capture by the Taliban can give them an access to the nuclear arsenals. The reports, though unconfirmed, but not unsubstantiated, suggest that the technology for an Islamic Nuclear Bomb has some how sneaked into the hands of these elements.
Surprisingly, the USA is not so serious to deal and wipe out this menace as it should be. How can US administration take the assurances of the Pakistan’s President for guaranteed with respect to coming heavily down on the Taliban? Such type of assurances had have been given earlier also but the situation has not improved, in fact it has gone from bad to worse. What a tragedy! Actually the whole diplomatic drama in Washington which Zardari played with Obama and Karzai a couple of days ago was aimed at notching multimillion dollar aid from America. Ironically he succeeded in it also. This time also he successfully befooled the international community including the USA which has recently voted for a change from white President to Black President. Undoubtedly this fund would be utilized for conducting anti-India tirade and military buildup across the LOC once this state manage drama is over.
What a huge disproportionate comparison! After 9/11 US launched full fledged war against Afghanistan to teach Al-Qaeda a lesson, but we have been advised to maintain restrain after Mumbai attack despite the fact that one of the attackers has been captured alive who has admitted candidly before the world of his involvement in the mayhem.
The situation is not going to improve in Pakistan even if Gilani genuinely tries to clear Pakistan from Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The reason is simple. The army or at least major part of the Pakistan Army is contaminated with fundamentalism and the utopian concept of Afghanistanisation of Pakistan and later on Islamisation of the whole world have been indoctrinated into the hearts and minds of the rank and file of Pakistan’s army. America must understand this and should engage itself into Pakistan because the situation here in much more precarious than the Afghanistan itself. If the tattered Government of Pakistan tries to enforce its decree, the army may again stage a coup against the civilian government and it seems Pakistan is heading towards it very fast

DEVELOPMENTS IN NEPAL; LESSONS FOR INDIA

TOO CLOSE TO BE SEPARATED

The infant democracy of Himalayan Kingdom, Nepal, has been put into incubator for supplying oxygen and dosing some more testing medicines to keep it survived. The abrupt resignation of Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda over General Katwal, the Chief of Armed Staff’s issue, has raised many questions which urgently require answers both from domestic political and administrative classes and international community. Some experts believe that Prachanda did it out of sheer political immaturity and he should have waited and bargained a little more before tendering his resignation. But it seems academically naive to think like this. Prachanda who gained huge experience of running Jan Andolan or people’s agitation against monarchy in particular and political establishments in general therefore could not be taken as politically immature personality.
Anyway, the crisis has come and that too in a time when India is limping through its own elections, the result of which is likely to give birth to a fractured mandate in the Parliament।

The birth of democracy in Nepal could be possible after a Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the CPA, was signed by Seven Parties Alliance and the Maoists. It was a land mark in the political history of not only of Nepal but of the entire South Asian region in the sense that it was an experiment of electoral politics with Maoism. It was altogether a new concept and nobody even in China had ever thought of it. It was a positive sign and in India also the idea of bringing Naxalites into the electoral politics started gaining grounds.
The wedding of Maoism with Election leads a situation to develop in Nepal and the Monarchy was dismantled and democratic republic came into being. The Peace process was initiated and constituent assembly was voted to existence. UN mission in Nepal, the UNMIN, which oversaw the surrender of Maoists guerrillas, also played a vital role.
The first set back of Prachanda, the supreme leader of Maoists in Nepal came in the elections which were held to constitute the Constituent Assembly। In this election he could secure only 229 out of total 601 seats bagging only 38.1% votes. After initial confusion as to whether Prachanda will like to be PM or President, he finally choose to become the first PM of Nepal and the Presidency went to one Ram Baran Yadav, a madhesi origin of Nepali Congress. Prachanda wanted to integrate his People Liberation Army, the PLA, erstwhile guerrillas, with the Nepali Army. In fact this integration plan had been one of the most important conditions of Prachanda to agree to the CPA. His Plans of integration has been not acceptable to India for obvious political and security reasons. Prachanda’s insistence of this plan smacked the Chinese influence and perhaps due to this reason it was not acceptable to other left wing parties like UML and Communist Party of Nepal ML also. Every one feared of Prachandisation of Nepal Army.

SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA AND WHAT INDIA SHOULD DO NOW- India cannot remain indifferent to what is going on in the Himalayan region। The developments in this country are certainly going to have strategic, political and security impact on India. India perforce needs to employ a range of diplomatic measures but at the same time should ensure that Nepal or Nepalese should not feel hurt of being interfered with their internal affairs. In fact the naiveté of our political and diplomatic establishments have already done huge damage to our image of being neutral during Jan andolan phase II, after which the Monarchy was thrown out. The Nepalese psyche still feels that India was favouring King Gynendra when public at large was in no mood to spare the King. Why do we fail to understand the public psyche? We sent Dr. Karan Singh as an envoy to Nepal to avert the crisis who was somehow related to the King’s dynasty. It evoked strong reaction amongst the public against India. This time we should avoid playing the game with emotions. Foreign policy should be based on pragmatism rather that idealism. Unfortunately we lose the game even after performing the best while others win without delivering anything. This is the paradox of our foreign policy. We win wars and lose diplomacy. Tashkent and Simla Agreement are the best examples in our diplomatic history.

The Chinese influence on Nepal is perceptible in almost every walk of life. This crisis may provide China more conducive and congenial environment to intrude into the governance and society more intensely than ever before. The Madhesi and Pahari divide of Nepalese civil society is almost vertical. The further intrusion of Chinese would aggravate the situation and thus would make the conditions in Nepal more hostile for India.
The first and foremost task that the political parties are required to do is to form a govt. India may tacitly but silently play a role in achieving this goal. Any mishandling of the situation may snow ball into withdrawal of Prachanda from the CPA. The result of such withdrawal would be catastrophic. The entire peace process may de-rail and the security situation across the Indo-Nepal border would deteriorate. The UNMIN, which has overseen the disarming of PLA, has categorically conveyed its dissatisfaction. The reports suggest that only few thousands of 303 rifles, country made guns, and small number of ammunitions were surrendered. It means that the PLA cadres still has enough arms and ammunitions with them and in case of failure of CPA and their subsequent reversal into jungles for launching agitation, these arms could be used. Development of such type of situation is unaffordable for India; we are already in a war like situation on North-West fronts, thanks to the Talibanisation of areas like Swat and Buner in Pakistan.
The Nepalese leaders on the other hand should concentrate on drafting of the Constitution for the Republic of Nepal, a task that is least attended so far। Reports coming from unconfirmed sources suggest that the drafting of the constitution has not yet begun in the real sense of the term। If the present trend of instability goes unabated, the situation would get out of control and unprecedented political crisis would crop up. India can provide some support on this issue with the consent of the parties in power. We have huge experience on this issue and India can boasts of a sound constitutional foundation. We have galaxy of eminent constitutional luminaries who can be of immense help for them, if their services are solicited.