(LONG MARCH; WAY TO ISLAMABAD SEAT OF POWER?)
The security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan is changing very swiftly over a week. The war against terrorism in Afghanistan led by US is not making desired headway. General Patreus has admitted that they are not winning the war. In a diplomatic style, he of course said that the situation would improve once as proposed 17000 American troops reach into Afghanistan. But many experts in strategic and defence fields feel that situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are completely different. In Iraq the country was blocked and no tangible support or logistic inputs were available for the Iraqi insurgents, whereas; in Afghanistan the situation is different. Mulla Omar and Osama, both are alive and commanding their men, in Iraq after the capture of Saddam the insurgents were virtually leaderless and unorganised. They made some desperate attacks but thoroughly unorganised and ill coordinated. Taliban on the other hand is proving so far unmatched with world’s best army, thanks to the local tribal support from both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Taliban is gaining ground repulsing the govt forces from country side. In fact Karzai’s writs don’t run beyond Kabul. The ministers, governors, govt offices, embassies and even jails are not safe and Taliban is capable of striking anywhere any time. The high security prison in Kabul was blown and prisoners including Taliban inmates were freed. Situation is such that even Presidential palace in Kabul is considered ‘not safe’. The supply line across north-west of Pakistan is highly unsafe and US had to solicit support from Russia for an alternate supply route to which Russia did agree but with a bargain. It too wants a role to play in this region.
The rampant corruption in Afghanistan amongst its bureaucracy, Police and diplomats is marring all efforts of reconstruction and reconciliation. Even American army officials are not exception to these pandemics. The good will, once generated after Taliban’s ouster from Kabul, is eroding. The Afghan tribes, the autonomy loving people are frustrated with these developments and therefore; the local population is getting hostile towards the alliance forces day by day. The call of Taliban to oust, ‘foreign mercenaries’ as what it call, from its soil is finding sympathetic space in the hearts of common Afghanis also. This emotional call of Taliban has aggravated the problem for American in Afghanistan.
Under these circumstances Obama has vividly accepted that American forces are not winning the war in Afghanistan and he candidly accepted that on principle he is exploring to engage, what he called liberal and moderate elements in Taliban, in dialogue. In an interview to The New York Times, he said he ponders outreach to moderate elements in Taliban. Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy of Obama’s administration might have advised US president to do so drawing experience from Iraq perhaps. In Iraq, Shias were engaged in dialogue and seems to have paid back in restoring some amount of peace. America wants to re-do this experiment in Afghanistan. Let’s hope and pray that this formulae works.
Well, only time will tell that whether any moderate Taliban really exists or not. Some experts are of the opinion that there is no good or bad Taliban and Taliban do not have any moderates, they all are extremists and religious fundamentalists.
This marks a major shift in the established American policy towards Taliban. This is going to have profound impact on security environment in the entire region, south-Asian region in general and Indian in particular.
On the other hand the situation in Pakistan is fast moving away from normal. President Zardari's tactless handling of situation is worsening the situation in Pakistan. The law and order situation is fast deteriorating. The bomb blasts, suicidal attacks, growing influence of Taliban and terrorists activities in general are going unabated. On constitutional front, Zardari did not offer constitutional package. The constitutional changes which Parvez Musharaff had brought in inorder to keep unbridled power with respect to dissolve Parliament etc are still to be annulled and done away with. The interference of President in matters of governance is such that even appointment in PMO are being done by the President himself. The restoration of Judiciary in pre-amendment status to which Zardari had made written agreement with Nawaz, stiil awaits presidents nod. Above all, the imminent showdown between Zardari and Nawaz over the Supreme Court’s verdict which went against the Nawaz and his brother Sahwaz, is snow balling into an unprecedented situation of political crisis with the General Ashfaz Piarvez Kayani giving ultimatum to Zardari 'either to improve situation or face the music'. The reliable sources at Islamabad claim that the Army is tightening its belt for an imminent take over situation or at least to play a major role in the coming days, a role pakistani army relish to perform unlike many democracy in the world.
Pakistani PM Gilani met General Kayani on 12th, the Wednesday and speculation is rife now that Kayani wanted Gilani to play a bigger role, hitherto denied to him by Zardari. Although the PM’s official spokesperson and advisor to PM said that Kayani is of the opinion that army should be kept out of politics because what he said, the democracy has transcended after a decade of Military rule.Holbrook and American ambassodor has met PM and has taken stock of situation. Americans are keeping a close watch over the situation.
Zardari in a determined mood to stop the ‘long march’( 15-16 March, Lahore- Islamabad), to which Nawaz has given call, has ordered tough actions to be taken. Hundreds of political activists, lawyers and media persons have either been arrested or put under house arrests. The authorities have invoked section 144 in the whole of areas and a senior official in the interior ministry, Rehman Malik, who is said to be close aide to Zardari, has said that Nawaz and his brother may be booked under charges of treason. This action of Zardari has invited condemnation from many corners including America. Democracy and Martial law are like musical chair game in Pakistan. This time the history is likely to repeat again.
Nawaz and Zardari have been at logger heads from initial days of the government. Nawaz wants Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary, the deposed CJ of Pakistan’s Supreme Court to be reinstated, whereas; Zardari, being sceptical about Chaudhary’s intensions, wants to defer the matter to maximum stretchable limits. It is only when the SC in a verdict on25 February, this year disqualified Sharif and his brother the CM of Punjab province from holding any elected office, the situation triggered off towards direct confrontation. Zardari immediately sacked Shabaz as CM of Punjab and put it in President’s Rule. This was interpreted by Nawaz that the decision of the SC has come on the behest of Zardari.
Even before this the security situation in Pakistan is fast slipping out of the hands of government over some time. The complete surrender of Pakistani government in swat valley which is hardly 100 Kilometres away from Islamabad, to Taliban is the testimony of ever-growing power of Taliban in Pakistan. The purchased peaces in once an alpine tourist valley swat in exchange of introduction of Shariat law has stopped the fire throwing mouth of the guns for the time being but the authority of the government has been thoroughly undermined. The advance of Taliban is undeterred and unchecked. In fact in the entire FATA, major parts of Baluchistan and Waziristan govt writs are not running. The situation is such that if one fine morning Islamabad itself is captured by the Taliban, no one should take it as surprise. Thus the political, security and economic situation in Pakistan are ripe for such things to happen. One thing is amply clear that the days of Zardari are over. Even if Military takeover is averted, Zardari, in all possibility, is likely either to be removed or forced to quit in a couple of weeks.
Taking into consideration both the developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the security situation in India is likely to be seriously threatened. How far after all are our borders from these areas? T.V channels telecasted that Taliban is coming ! Is it only a TRP driven rhetoric or do we really face such a situation, needs to be contemplated.
IMPACT OF THESE DEVELOPMENT ON INDIA- India has been the softest target of Pakistani militants, right from its birth as an independent nation in 1947. We all know and it is too obvious and simple a proposition to be discussed that the humiliating defeat of Pakistan at the hands of India thrice has forced it to switch over to proxy war and subsequently low intensity war in Indian territory. The ongoing terrorist activities in India are handiwork of Pakistan and it is proven beyond a shadow of doubt.
The subjugation of Swat valley to the Taliban is of special significance with respect to India. An unholy nexus developed between Al-Qaida and Taliban in Afghanistan in order to fight against the Americans. This nexus gradually grew and flourished and took the shape of international terrorism. Many experts in this field believe that all other small or big terrorist organisations in one way or the other are logistically linked with this grand alliance of Al-Qaida and Taliban.
The figures of terrorist attacks in India and for that matter elsewhere in the world have undergone a huge qualitative and quantitative change. The mechanism as well as intensity has enhanced.
With the swat coming to the Taliban’s hegemony, this nexus has found a new base in Pakistan which is of immense strategic importance. Swat is hardly 100 kms away from Islamabad and roughly 70 Kms away from Peshawar. It these distances are calculated Indian capital New Delhi is hardly 758 kms away from Islamabad and Lahore only 427 kms. Obviously our western command will be very near to the swat valley. Pakistan has developed intermediate and short range missiles like Abdali, Ghaznavi, both short range, Ghauri, Ghauri I, II, medium range Ghauri III (ICBM) Shaheen, Shaheen I, II and III etc.
Swat is just a sojourn of Taliban and Al-Qaida duo and they will consolidate their position here. Unfortunately, the command and control system of these missile and nuclear warheads are in the hands of military rather than civilian govt. It is a well known fact that there is one another unholy nexus between ISI and terrorists organisations. Thus terrorists, ISI and military trio nexus has negated all the efforts of reconciliation. Even some officials on condition of anonymity say that the special wing in ISI called "S' wing has been imparting training to talibans and Al-Qaida militants. In fact it is this nexus which has aggravated the problem of US because the kind of logistic and material support which this 's' wing provides to these outfits has enhanced the strike capabilities of these groups fighting against American forces in strife torn areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This nexus of ISI militants and muzahiddins in Kashmir has been revealed none other than by Nawaz Sharif himself regarding Kargil war.
It is in this perspective and situation, the recent developments in Pakistan is of serious concern for India. A democratic, stable, prosperous and non-fundamentalist Pakistan is in India’s interest.
With the Talibanisation of this strategic territory of swat valley, the above mentioned threats are looming large on India. The security situation in Kashmir is likely to further worsen. The terrorist influx into Indian Territory will increase. Kashmir went to poll and a democratically elected govt under the west educated CM came to power. The peace process is moving forward with more and more people are coming to mainstream and its testimony was witnessed in huge turnout in the last Assembly election. Peace and democracy are enemies of terrorists, therefore; this situation is likely to be threatened seriously.
If the situation in Pakistan is allowed to go to nadir, the grip of Taliban and other such forces would grow stronger and can seriously jeopardise the security of this Nation.
Any complacency on our part in this regard can prove to be disastrous. Shiv Shanker Menon was in USA to meet his counterpart Hillary Clinton. He has held wide ranging dialogue with his counterpart and many others in America. He has rightly said that the Afghanistan problem should be viewed and resolved in an integrated fashion. He meant thereby that any diplomatic or strategic manoeuvring or retreat without taking into India’s stand would be disastrous and would meet with fiasco. India has rightly objected to Holbrooke’s reported attempt to drag Kashmir into his mission. Fortunately Holbrooke too could perceive Indian’s mood and categorically stated that Kashmir is not an areas US wanted mediation. However India has to be too vigilant and pro-active vis-a-vis developments in its North West neighbours. Parvez Mussaraff speech at India conclave only a few day ago smacked of Pakistan’s development. He wanted to incite Indian Muslims' sentiment against the establishment. Thank to rebuff given by Maulana Madni. United we stand divided we fall, though sounds an old and obsolete rhetoric, is the need of hour.
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