SRI LANKA'S VICTORY;LESSON FOR WORLD

                            END OF LTTE AND ADVENT OF NEW

                                         DAWN IN SRILANKA

 LTTE Chief’s death marked the end of 26 years long war of Sri Lankan Army with LTTE. In other words we can say that Sri Lanka has won the Military war against world’s more powerful, organized and deadly terrorist organization, the LTTE. The dead body of LTTE Chief Virupillai Prabhakaran has been identified by the Lankan Army, the video footage of which has been shown on the electronic media to the world giving a message that they have the caliber to win and courage to fight unto death.

 

The victory has unfolded many success stories of Sri Lankan army and many such stories would be authored in the years to come in their glory. The last couple of months had been particularly very tough and challenging for the Sri Lanka in view of the growing concerns of international community about the alleged gross human rights violations by the army. The huge exodus of Tamil civilians from the war zones had has been a matter of serious concern for the government as well as international aid agencies like UNHCR and International Red Cross Society. The exact number of causalities during the 26 years of incessant war including deaths in the fresh offensive from January, 2009 would never be known, but time would help heal this wound soon, provided the Tamil problem is solved within the frame work of Sri Lankan territorial integrity and sovereignty.

 

The war fought by the Lankan army is a lesson for every Nation which is facing the problem of Terrorism including India. It is also a lesson for West and particularly America who is still to win and bring the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan-Pakistan to a logical conclusion.

 

The 2^nd Gulf war started   some ten years back by Barrack Obama’s predecessor George Bush is yet to be won even when Saddam is dead and the country is ruined. 9/11 humiliated America and it fought back with skirmish. Afghanistan under Taliban was attacked by USA under the false banner of NATO and forcibly retrieved consent of UN. The Taliban were deposed and Mullah Md Omar was dethroned. Initially USA thought that the war is over and it would show to the world that the America cares for the third world. It started so called reconstruction of Afghanistan, a task that will never be finished. The war against Omar and Osama-bin-Laden, the Al-Qaeda chief was termed as ‘Global War against Terror’. The USA undoubtedly the best and most powerful armed forces in the world with unmatched fighter planes, most lethal artilleries, heavily protected armored vehicles most sophisticated anti-terror equipments and other weapons blended with world’s best trained marines have yet to kill either Osama or Mullah Muhammad Omar. The ongoing seemingly unending war in Afpak territory is being fought with following military strengths-

There are 38,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, including three combat brigades and non-combat troops. Their numbers were bolstered by the recent arrival of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the Army's 10th Mountain Division, which has begun operating in eastern part of Afghanistan. There shall be additional deployment of 17,000 troops, as assured by Obama in his maiden Presidential speech. A force of 8,000 Marines, consisting of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade was further reinforced in Afghanistan. All the NATO countries are engaged in this war in one way or the other but What to talk of victory, Americans have yet to see Osama and Omar physically. They have so far failed to trace their hideouts and movements. The American army has been thoroughly demoralized when Taliban took Swat, Buner in Malakhand, Mingora etc under its suzerainty and posed an existential threat to Pakistan. 

One the other hand, Sri Lanka, with a meager total numerical strength of 1, 70,000 troops has been fighting against LTTE, one of the most organized and well trained terrorist organization which has been banned in as many as 32 countries for the last 26 years without any moral and material support of International community. In fact the international community including America influenced UN has always castigated and demoralized Sri Lanka on this issue. If the comparison is drawn between Al-Qaeda and Taliban on the one hand and LTTE on the other, it can be easily understood that LTTE is the most modern, well organized and hierarchical on lines of Military structure of modern state, disciplined and most committed, whereas; Al-Qaeda and Taliban are ill trained, less organized and ill disciplined. In fact the duo is more a militia that anything else inculcated with medieval cultural and military ethos.

Is it not very surprising to see that the world’s best army is not able to defeat the medieval band of mercenary militia?

The victory of Sri Lankan army over LTTE has necessitated USA to rethink over its war techniques and strategy of military operation against Al-Qaeda and Taliban. It is well said that success has many fathers and failures have only orphans. The international community which had been criticizing the Sri Lankan government over alleged human rights violations have now extending congratulations on the killing of Prabhakaran. The public jubilations in Sri Lanka is such that when Miliband, the Foreign Minister of UK criticized Sri Lanka for its alleged atrocities, he was burn in effigies. The international communities especially the West including American have to understand that protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity are the inalienable and non negotiable rights of and Independent Nation.  India must learn a lesson that a half hearted fight against Terrorism is like injuring a poisonous snake and letting it prepare to a fresh offensive, obviously which is more lethal and dangerous. We will have to re-think our Kashmir Policy and our strategy of fight against Terrorism. The political commitment and unshaken rocky resolve to uproot terrorism is the unfinished task of our successive governments. Amongst the priorities of the new UPA government should also be to crush the terrorists and terrorism in all its form. Let the world shed its crocodile tears, after all if the Nation itself is at stake who and why does one talk about diplomacy, human rights and international communities’ criticism and pressure. If Sri Lankan why not me .

PAKISTAN;SOMALIA OF ASIA

(PLAYING WITH FIRE WILL BURN YOU TOO)

The war against terror in Pakistan and Afghanistan has converted the region a war zone and India is unnecessarily made part of it। US has miserably failed to tame Taliban and Al-Qaida militants even after billions of dollars have been injected into the entire exercise. The resources in terms of man and material which have been lost in this seemingly unending war are unparallel in modern history. The situation is worsening with every passing day and the hopes of illusive victory in this strife torn country is far from sight. Pakistan is becoming Somalia of Asia and Rwanda and Darfur of the region.

In nutshell the security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan is changing very swiftly over a week। The war against terrorism in Afghanistan led by US is not making desired headway. General Patreus has admitted that they are not winning the war. In a diplomatic style, he of course said that the situation would improve once as proposed 17000 American troops reach into Afghanistan. But many experts in strategic and defence fields feel that situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are completely different. In Iraq the country was blocked and no tangible support or logistic inputs were available for the Iraqi insurgents, whereas; in Afghanistan the situation is different. Mullah-Omar and Osama-bin-Laden, both are alive and commanding their men, in Iraq after the capture of Saddam the insurgents were virtually leaderless and unorganised. They made some desperate attacks but thoroughly unorganised and ill coordinated. Taliban on the other hand is proving so far unmatched with world’s best army, thanks to the local tribal support from both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban is gaining ground repulsing the govt forces from country side। In fact Hamid Karzai’s writs don’t run beyond Kabul. The ministers, governors, govt offices, embassies and even jails are not safe and Taliban is capable of striking anywhere any time. The high security prison in Kabul was blown and prisoners including Taliban inmates were freed. Situation is such that even Presidential palace in Kabul is considered ‘not safe’. The supply line across north-west of Pakistan is highly unsafe and US had to solicit support from Russia for an alternate supply route to which Russia did agree but with a bargain. It too wants a role to play in this region.

The rampant corruption in Afghanistan amongst its bureaucracy, Police and diplomats is marring all efforts of reconstruction and reconciliation। Even American army officials are not exception to these pandemics. The good will, once generated after Taliban’s ouster from Kabul, is eroding. The Afghan tribes, the autonomy loving people are frustrated with these developments and therefore; the local population is getting hostile towards the alliance forces day by day. The call of Taliban to oust, ‘foreign mercenaries’ as what it call, from its soil is finding sympathetic space in the hearts of common Afghanis also. This emotional call of Taliban has aggravated the problem for American in Afghanistan.

Under these circumstances Obama has vividly accepted that American forces are not winning the war in Afghanistan and he candidly accepted that on principle he is exploring to engage, what he called liberal and moderate elements in Taliban, in dialogue. In an interview to The New York Times, he said he ponders outreach to moderate elements in Taliban. Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy of Obama’s administration might have advised US president to so drawing experience from Iraq perhaps. In Iraq, Shias were engaged in dialogue and seems to have paid back in restoring some amount of peace. America wants to re-do this experiment in Afghanistan. Let’s hope and pray that this formulae works.
Well, only time will tell that whether any moderate Taliban really exists or not. Some experts are of the opinion that there is no good or ban Taliban and Taliban do not have any moderates, all they have are extremists and religious fundamentalists.
This marks a major shift in the established American policy towards Taliban. This is going to have profound impact on security environment in the entire region, south-Asian region in general and Indian in particular.
On the other hand the situation in Pakistan is fast moving away from normal। The showdown between Zardari and Nawaz over the Supreme Court’s verdict which went against the Nawaz and his brother Sahwaz, snow balled into an unprecedented political crisis with the General Ashfaz Parvez Kayani giving ultimatum to Zardari either to improve situation or face the music. Although the situation could be averted by timely intervention of Americans in the power echelon and Zardari was made to accede to the demand, otherwise the situation was likely to go to a point of no return.

In spite of the temporary truce between Nawaz and Zardari, the person chemistry between them is far from satisfactory and friendly. They have been still at logger heads and any political mishandling would led to all out war between them.
Even before this political and security crisis, the security situation in Pakistan has been fast slipping out of the hands of government over some time. The complete surrender of Pakistani government in swat valley which is hardly 100 Kilometres away from Islamabad, to Taliban is the testimony of ever-growing power of Taliban in Pakistan. The purchased peaces in Swat, once an alpine tourist valley in exchange of introduction of Shariat law has stopped the fire throwing mouth of the guns for the time being but the authority of the government has been thoroughly undermined. The lapis lazuli mines of swat valley have reported to be brought under Taliban’s control. The poppy cultivation in many areas in Pakistan by the Jihadists and Taliban is also adding to their coffers. According to one estimate Taliban controls more than 2/3rd of the illegal arms and drug trade which is approximately 3-4 trillion US dollars. Such is the economic and military strength of these elements.
The advance of Taliban is thus undeterred and unchecked. In fact in the entire FATA, major parts of Baluchistan and Waziristan, govt writs are not running. The situation is such that if one fine morning Islamabad itself is captured by the Taliban, no one should take it as surprise. Thus the political, security and economic situation in Pakistan is ripe for such things to happen. One thing is amply clear that the days of Zardari are fast running out. Even if this time Military takeover is averted, the situation in Pakistan is worsening day by day and getting out of control of the establishment.
Taking into consideration both the developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the security situation in India is likely to be seriously threatened। How far after all are our borders from these areas? T.V channels telecasted that Taliban is coming! Is it only a TRP driven rhetoric or do we really face such a situation, needs to be contemplated.

IMPACT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON INDIA- India has been the softest target of Pakistani militants, right from its birth as an independent nation in 1947. We all know and it is too obvious and simple a proposition to be discussed that the humiliating defeat of Pakistan at the hands of India thrice has forced it to switch over to proxy war and subsequently low intensity war in Indian territory. The ongoing terrorist activities in India are handiwork of Pakistan and it is proven beyond a shadow of doubt.
The subjugation of Swat valley to the Taliban is of special significance with respect to India. An unholy nexus developed between Al-Qaida and Taliban in Afghanistan in order to fight against the Americans. This nexus gradually grew and flourished and took the shape of international terrorism. Many experts in this field believe that all other small or big terrorist organisations in one way or the other are logistically linked with this grand alliance of Al-Qaida and Taliban.
The figures of terrorist attacks in India and for that matter elsewhere in the world have undergone a huge qualitative and quantitative change. The mechanism as well as intensity has enhanced.
With the swat coming to the Taliban’s hegemony, this nexus has found a new base in Pakistan which is of immense strategic importance. Swat is hardly 100 kms away from Islamabad and roughly 70 Kms away from Peshawar. It these distances are calculated Indian capital New Delhi is hardly 758 kms away from Islamabad and Lahore only 427 kms. Obviously our western command will be very near to the swat valley. Pakistan has developed intermediate and short range missiles like Abdali, Ghaznavi, both short range, Ghauri, Ghauri I, II, medium range Ghauri III (ICBM) Shaheen, Shaheen I, II and III etc.
Swat is just a sojourn of Taliban and Al-Qaida duo and they will consolidate their position here. Unfortunately, the command and control system of these missile and nuclear warheads are in the hands of military rather than civilian govt. It is a well known fact that there is one another unholy nexus between ISI and terrorists organisations. Thus terrorists, ISI and military trio nexus has negated all the efforts of reconciliation. This has been revealed none other than by Nawaz Sharif himself regarding Kargil war.
It is in this perspective and situation, the recent developments in Pakistan is of serious concern for India. A democratic, stable, prosperous and non-fundamentalist Pakistan is in India’s interest.
With the Talibanisation of this strategic territory of swat valley, the above mentioned threats are looming large on India. The security situation in Kashmir is likely to further worsen. The terrorist influx into Indian Territory will increase. Kashmir went to poll and a democratically elected govt under the west educated CM came to power. The peace process is moving forward with more and more people are coming to mainstream and its testimony was witnessed in huge turnout in the last Assembly election. Peace and democracy are enemies of terrorists, therefore; this situation is likely to be threatened seriously.
If the situation in Pakistan is allowed to go to nadir, the grip of Taliban and other such forces would grow stronger and can seriously jeopardise the security of this Nation.
Any complacency on our part in this regard can prove to be disastrous। Shiv Shanker Menon was in USA to meet his counterpart Hillary Clinton. He has held wide ranging dialogue with his counterpart and many others in America. He has rightly said that the Afghanistan problem should be viewed and resolved in an integrated fashion. He meant thereby that any diplomatic or strategic manoeuvring or retreat without taking into India’s stand would be disastrous and would meet with fiasco. India has rightly objected to Holbrooke’s reported attempt to drag Kashmir into his mission. Fortunately Holbrooke too could perceive Indian’s mood and categorically stated that Kashmir is not an areas US wanted mediation. However India has to be too vigilant and pro-active vis-a-vis developments in its North West neighbours. Parvez Musaraff speech at India conclave only a few days ago smacked of Pakistan’s development. He wanted to incite Indian Muslims sentiment against the establishment. Thank to rebuff by Maulana Madni. United we stand divided we fall, though sounds and old and obsolete rhetoric, is the need of hour.

WHAT STEPS INDIA SHOULD TAKE NOW- The existence of Pakistan has become a problem not only for India but also for the whole region. Madeline Albright has rightly described it as Somalia of the region. It has become a failed state and will let many others to sink also. The ongoing so called peace process and composite dialogue are not going to solve the problem. The attitude of Pakistan towards has not changed and is not likely to change also. The so called investigation in 26/11 Mumbai attacks is the recent example of Pakistan’s lackesaidial and delay tactics attitude. Ajmal Kasab’s confessional statements and confession footage aired on Geo TV in Pakistan has cleared all the doubts but still Pakistan is not prepared to come to terms. In the given circumstances India needs to take recourse to some decisive and drastic diplomatic and military steps. Hot pursuits into Pakistan borders and demolition of training camps are some of the most desired steps. The soft attitude of India has been taken for granted by our neighbours as well as terrorists. Time has come that we should not only break the diplomatic relation with Pakistan but take recourse to other options available in accordance with the provisions of internal law. But breaking Pakistan as a Nation is not an acceptable proposition. It is against the principles of international law as well as Geneva Convention. Pakistan has a right to remain as a Nation but it does not have a right not to allow others to live like this. A happy, prosperous, peaceful and stable democratic Pakistan is as important for India as it is for an average and common Pakistanis.

DEVELOPMENT IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN; ITS IMPACT ON INDIA

(LONG MARCH; WAY TO ISLAMABAD SEAT OF POWER?)

The security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan is changing very swiftly over a week. The war against terrorism in Afghanistan led by US is not making desired headway. General Patreus has admitted that they are not winning the war. In a diplomatic style, he of course said that the situation would improve once as proposed 17000 American troops reach into Afghanistan. But many experts in strategic and defence fields feel that situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are completely different. In Iraq the country was blocked and no tangible support or logistic inputs were available for the Iraqi insurgents, whereas; in Afghanistan the situation is different. Mulla Omar and Osama, both are alive and commanding their men, in Iraq after the capture of Saddam the insurgents were virtually leaderless and unorganised. They made some desperate attacks but thoroughly unorganised and ill coordinated. Taliban on the other hand is proving so far unmatched with world’s best army, thanks to the local tribal support from both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

The Taliban is gaining ground repulsing the govt forces from country side. In fact Karzai’s writs don’t run beyond Kabul. The ministers, governors, govt offices, embassies and even jails are not safe and Taliban is capable of striking anywhere any time. The high security prison in Kabul was blown and prisoners including Taliban inmates were freed. Situation is such that even Presidential palace in Kabul is considered ‘not safe’. The supply line across north-west of Pakistan is highly unsafe and US had to solicit support from Russia for an alternate supply route to which Russia did agree but with a bargain. It too wants a role to play in this region. 

The rampant corruption in Afghanistan amongst its bureaucracy, Police and diplomats is marring all efforts of reconstruction and reconciliation. Even American army officials are not exception to these pandemics. The good will, once generated after Taliban’s ouster from Kabul, is eroding. The Afghan tribes, the autonomy loving people are frustrated with these developments and therefore; the local population is getting hostile towards the alliance forces day by day. The call of Taliban to oust, ‘foreign mercenaries’ as what it call, from its soil is finding sympathetic space in the hearts of common Afghanis also. This emotional call of Taliban has aggravated the problem for American in Afghanistan.

Under these circumstances Obama has vividly accepted that American forces are not winning the war in Afghanistan and he candidly accepted that on principle he is exploring to engage, what he called liberal and moderate elements in Taliban, in dialogue. In an interview to The New York Times, he said he ponders outreach to moderate elements in Taliban. Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy of Obama’s administration might have advised US president to do so drawing experience from Iraq perhaps. In Iraq, Shias were engaged in dialogue and seems to have paid back in restoring some amount of peace. America wants to re-do this experiment in Afghanistan. Let’s hope and pray that this formulae works.

Well, only time will tell that whether any moderate Taliban really exists or not. Some experts are of the opinion that there is no good or bad Taliban and Taliban do not have any moderates, they all are extremists and religious fundamentalists.

This marks a major shift in the established American policy towards Taliban. This is going to have profound impact on security environment in the entire region, south-Asian region in general and Indian in particular. 

On the other hand the situation in Pakistan is fast moving away from normal. President Zardari's tactless handling of situation is worsening the situation in Pakistan. The law and order situation is fast deteriorating. The bomb blasts, suicidal attacks, growing influence of Taliban and terrorists activities in general are going unabated. On constitutional front, Zardari did not offer constitutional package. The constitutional changes which Parvez Musharaff had brought in inorder to keep unbridled power with respect to dissolve Parliament etc are still to be annulled and done away with. The interference of President in matters of governance is such that even appointment in PMO are being done by the President himself. The restoration of Judiciary in pre-amendment status to which Zardari had made written agreement with Nawaz, stiil awaits presidents nod. Above all, the imminent showdown between Zardari and Nawaz over the Supreme Court’s verdict which went against the Nawaz and his brother Sahwaz, is snow balling into an unprecedented situation of political crisis with the General Ashfaz Piarvez Kayani giving ultimatum to Zardari 'either to improve situation or face the music'. The reliable sources at Islamabad claim that the Army is tightening its belt for an imminent take over situation or at least to play a major role in the coming days, a role pakistani army relish to perform unlike many democracy in the world.

Pakistani PM Gilani met General Kayani on 12th, the Wednesday and speculation is rife now that Kayani wanted Gilani to play a bigger role, hitherto denied to him by Zardari. Although the PM’s official spokesperson and advisor to PM said that Kayani is of the opinion that army should be kept out of politics because what he said, the democracy has transcended after a decade of Military rule.Holbrook and American ambassodor has met PM and has taken stock of situation. Americans are keeping a close watch over the situation.

Zardari in a determined mood to stop the ‘long march’( 15-16 March, Lahore- Islamabad), to which Nawaz has given call, has ordered tough actions to be taken. Hundreds of political activists, lawyers and media persons have either been arrested or put under house arrests. The authorities have invoked section 144 in the whole of areas and a senior official in the interior ministry, Rehman Malik, who is said to be close aide to Zardari, has said that Nawaz and his brother may be booked under charges of treason. This action of Zardari has invited condemnation from many corners including America. Democracy and Martial law are like musical chair game in Pakistan. This time the history is likely to repeat again.

Nawaz and Zardari have been at logger heads from initial days of the government. Nawaz wants Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary, the deposed CJ of Pakistan’s Supreme Court to be reinstated, whereas; Zardari, being sceptical about Chaudhary’s intensions, wants to defer the matter to maximum stretchable limits. It is only when the SC in a verdict on25 February, this year disqualified Sharif and his brother the CM of Punjab province from holding any elected office, the situation triggered off towards direct confrontation. Zardari immediately sacked Shabaz as CM of Punjab and put it in President’s Rule. This was interpreted by Nawaz that the decision of the SC has come on the behest of Zardari. 

Even before this the security situation in Pakistan is fast slipping out of the hands of government over some time. The complete surrender of Pakistani government in swat valley which is hardly 100 Kilometres away from Islamabad, to Taliban is the testimony of ever-growing power of Taliban in Pakistan. The purchased peaces in once an alpine tourist valley swat in exchange of introduction of Shariat law has stopped the fire throwing mouth of the guns for the time being but the authority of the government has been thoroughly undermined. The advance of Taliban is undeterred and unchecked. In fact in the entire FATA, major parts of Baluchistan and Waziristan govt writs are not running. The situation is such that if one fine morning Islamabad itself is captured by the Taliban, no one should take it as surprise. Thus the political, security and economic situation in Pakistan are ripe for such things to happen. One thing is amply clear that the days of Zardari are over. Even if Military takeover is averted, Zardari, in all possibility, is likely either to be removed or forced to quit in a couple of weeks.

Taking into consideration both the developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the security situation in India is likely to be seriously threatened. How far after all are our borders from these areas? T.V channels telecasted that Taliban is coming ! Is it only a TRP driven rhetoric or do we really face such a situation, needs to be contemplated.

IMPACT OF THESE DEVELOPMENT ON INDIA- India has been the softest target of Pakistani militants, right from its birth as an independent nation in 1947. We all know and it is too obvious and simple a proposition to be discussed that the humiliating defeat of Pakistan at the hands of India thrice has forced it to switch over to proxy war and subsequently low intensity war in Indian territory. The ongoing terrorist activities in India are handiwork of Pakistan and it is proven beyond a shadow of doubt.

The subjugation of Swat valley to the Taliban is of special significance with respect to India. An unholy nexus developed between Al-Qaida and Taliban in Afghanistan in order to fight against the Americans. This nexus gradually grew and flourished and took the shape of international terrorism. Many experts in this field believe that all other small or big terrorist organisations in one way or the other are logistically linked with this grand alliance of Al-Qaida and Taliban.

The figures of terrorist attacks in India and for that matter elsewhere in the world have undergone a huge qualitative and quantitative change. The mechanism as well as intensity has enhanced. 

With the swat coming to the Taliban’s hegemony, this nexus has found a new base in Pakistan which is of immense strategic importance. Swat is hardly 100 kms away from Islamabad and roughly 70 Kms away from Peshawar. It these distances are calculated Indian capital New Delhi is hardly 758 kms away from Islamabad and Lahore only 427 kms. Obviously our western command will be very near to the swat valley. Pakistan has developed intermediate and short range missiles like Abdali, Ghaznavi, both short range, Ghauri, Ghauri I, II, medium range Ghauri III (ICBM) Shaheen, Shaheen I, II and III etc. 

Swat is just a sojourn of Taliban and Al-Qaida duo and they will consolidate their position here. Unfortunately, the command and control system of these missile and nuclear warheads are in the hands of military rather than civilian govt. It is a well known fact that there is one another unholy nexus between ISI and terrorists organisations. Thus terrorists, ISI and military trio nexus has negated all the efforts of reconciliation. Even some officials on condition of anonymity say that the special wing in ISI called "S' wing has been imparting training to talibans and Al-Qaida militants. In fact it is this nexus which has aggravated the problem of US because the kind of logistic and material support which this 's' wing provides to these outfits has enhanced the strike capabilities of these groups fighting against American forces in strife torn areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This nexus of ISI militants and muzahiddins in Kashmir has been revealed none other than by Nawaz Sharif himself regarding Kargil war.

It is in this perspective and situation, the recent developments in Pakistan is of serious concern for India. A democratic, stable, prosperous and non-fundamentalist Pakistan is in India’s interest. 

With the Talibanisation of this strategic territory of swat valley, the above mentioned threats are looming large on India. The security situation in Kashmir is likely to further worsen. The terrorist influx into Indian Territory will increase. Kashmir went to poll and a democratically elected govt under the west educated CM came to power. The peace process is moving forward with more and more people are coming to mainstream and its testimony was witnessed in huge turnout in the last Assembly election. Peace and democracy are enemies of terrorists, therefore; this situation is likely to be threatened seriously. 

If the situation in Pakistan is allowed to go to nadir, the grip of Taliban and other such forces would grow stronger and can seriously jeopardise the security of this Nation. 

Any complacency on our part in this regard can prove to be disastrous. Shiv Shanker Menon was in USA to meet his counterpart Hillary Clinton. He has held wide ranging dialogue with his counterpart and many others in America. He has rightly said that the Afghanistan problem should be viewed and resolved in an integrated fashion. He meant thereby that any diplomatic or strategic manoeuvring or retreat without taking into India’s stand would be disastrous and would meet with fiasco. India has rightly objected to Holbrooke’s reported attempt to drag Kashmir into his mission. Fortunately Holbrooke too could perceive Indian’s mood and categorically stated that Kashmir is not an areas US wanted mediation. However India has to be too vigilant and pro-active vis-a-vis developments in its North West neighbours. Parvez Mussaraff speech at India conclave only a few day ago smacked of Pakistan’s development. He wanted to incite Indian Muslims' sentiment against the establishment. Thank to rebuff given by Maulana Madni. United we stand divided we fall, though sounds an old and obsolete rhetoric, is the need of hour.

WHO WILL CARE FOR GANDHI?

(BAPU,WHO WILL UPKEEP YOUR LEGACY?)

One week ago, Gandhi again came in news but not for any satyagraha movement or non-violent sermons. This news or better call it an out cry was centered around some of his belongings which were put to auction in Antiquorum Auctioneers at Manhattan in USA on thursday the 5th March,2009.

All what happened, that a film maker and peace activist, James Otis had in his possession some belongings of Mahatma Gandhi, which he wanted to put to auction through the Antiquorum. He had wanted to spend the money coming out through this auction for pacifest causes. When the news of this auction broke, it snow balled in a tempest all around in India. The Indian government as well many organisations jumped into the fray but not to buy back gandhi's pricelsse belongings like steel framed spects, a pair of sandals, a bowl and a pocket watch, but to get the auction cancelled. Otis, the peace lover was hurt and wanted to stop the auction but it was too late and the auction went ahead as per schedule.

Vijay Mallaya, the liquor magnate and a Indian business tycoon participated in the auciton through his representative Tony Bedi who became the highest bidder and the belongings were sold to Mallaya at $1.8 Million. The tempest was rested now. Mallaya is expected to bring back these items of Mahatma within a couple of weeks. The delay in handing over of the items is due to certain legal formalities which has become necessary because of some legal wrangles.

This episode has raised certain issues which unfortunately are full of ironies and paradoxes. The Party in power, the INC claims to be the real successor of Gandhi and boasts of carrying forward the legacy of Mahatma and Gandhi-Nehru family is in power, though behind the curtains, but it too could not buy Gandhi's items back. Second parodox is that Gandhi had been a champion of prohibition throughout his life but his belongings are bought back by a liquor magnate, what a contrast. Well no one can say that patriotism is the repository of those who falsely call themselves as champions of nationalism. This episode has once again revealed that India resides in Indians rich or poor, political or apolitical educated and iliterates alike. 

$1.8 million is not a huge amount for the items of Mahatma, infact they are priceless. The energy which the government wasted in getting the auction stayed, should have been channelised in buying back these items.

Many organisations, institutions and many political parties run on the name of Gandhi,unfortunately no one come to his rescue, what a shame! The political parties that always make an issue out of trivial things,but alas! this time no one except a patriot business man saved the nation from being stigmatised.

There are hundreds of items of our great leaders in this country, uncared and unattended, but who cares for them? However,as soon as these items reach out to the hands of foreigners, they become pricesless. Is it a mark of our colonial mindset or something else?

OBAMA ON GLOBAL WARMING AND OIL POLICY

President Barrack Obama yesterday singed an important executive order in the East Room of White House, which marked the beginning of reversal of Bush administration’s environmental policy.

The President has directed the Transport department to frame rules in order to execute and implement the Law of 2007 which requires 40% improvement in the efficiency of gas driven cars, other small vehicles and light trucks by the end of 2020. More specifically, the 2007 Law requires the Cars and light trucks to be driven at an efficiency of 15 KM/Litre. In India, most of the small vehicles specially cars are very fuel efficient and are running even 20 KM/ Litre. Thus the enforcement of this law would help bring down the level of green house gases to a great extent, a pledge Obama had taken during his election campaign.

President has also categorically asked the US Environment Protection Agency (EPA) to reconsider the request of California to allow it to frame tougher Rules and Regulation to ensure reduction in emission of green house gases (GHGs), a request which was flatly turned down by the Bush administration. California wants a reduction of 30% in the emission of GHGs by the end of 2016. As many as 18 other states are also willing to frame similar rules of their own for reducing emission of GHGs.

Reiterating his commitment towards checking global warming, he has appointed Todd Stern as CLIMATE ENVOY of USA. Mr. Todd had served as chief negotiator under Clinton administration in Kyoto protocol talks during 1997-99 and is said to have very positive out look vis-à-vis climatic change and global warming. 

The America oil policy is also all set to under go a radical change. Obama hinted this at the First press conference held at White House after taking oath. He asked the department to take steps to ensure that more fuel efficient vehicles are manufactured by the end of 2011. This would decrease the dependence of US on the OPEC and cut our import bills, he said. Obama opined that this would help create more jobs in Detroit and thus accelerate the pace of recovery from the economic down turn in a big way.

It is not out of place to mention that US has a huge oil reserves but it is importing from Gulf so that it can use its own reserve when the ‘wells of Gulf get dry’. This has been the unpronounced oil policy of US over many decades. Government came and went, but this policy remained unchanged. Many experts in international politics are of the opinion that the first Gulf war of 1991 and the Iraq war were fought to establish American hegemony so that the supply of fuel to this country goes unabated and that too at a price fixed not by OPEC but in New York and London.

The process of reversal of the above mentioned policies and their implementation would not be smooth job for Obama as it is likely to break the age old mindset of the neo imperialists in the administration. It would at the same time not be easy for those who may oppose Obama in view of the land slide mandate that has been bestowed on him .

LESSON FOR INDIA- India is a signatory to ‘Kyoto Protocol’ and is thereby obliged to frame rules for reducing emission of GHGs. For achieving target of reducing the emissions set by the Kyoto, India needs to frame tougher laws related to fuel efficiency, because Co2 emission by vehicles is directly related to magnitude of this problem.

According to one estimate, India is the second largest Car market in the world and constitutes 14% of CAGR. India meets 78 % of its fuel demands by imports and is likely to go up to 94% by 2030. This means that the level of emission of GHGs especially Co2 would go up alarmingly over a period of time.

We have one ‘Bureau of Energy Efficiency’ which takes care of this problem. There is a ‘National Action Plan on Climate Change document (NAPCC)’ which postulates many other related topics including emissions of GHGs. Right now, we don’t have any emission specific law, therefore; we desperately require enacting an emission specific legislation for vehicles as the Americans have done in 2007.

Supreme Court of India has already laid down certain guidelines and many of which had been implemented in Delhi. All the Buses and Auto rickshaws in Delhi are now CNG driven. We need to take similar steps in other parts of the country also.

Many experts fix target of 80 gm/ Km by 2020 for India and say that if it is not achieved, we would be among the largest polluting nations in the world. 

Countries like Japan, China, S. Korea, Taiwan and almost all EU countries have emission regulators; therefore there is no reason why a fast developing country like India does not have a regulation in this regard.