PAKISTAN;SOMALIA OF ASIA

(PLAYING WITH FIRE WILL BURN YOU TOO)

The war against terror in Pakistan and Afghanistan has converted the region a war zone and India is unnecessarily made part of it। US has miserably failed to tame Taliban and Al-Qaida militants even after billions of dollars have been injected into the entire exercise. The resources in terms of man and material which have been lost in this seemingly unending war are unparallel in modern history. The situation is worsening with every passing day and the hopes of illusive victory in this strife torn country is far from sight. Pakistan is becoming Somalia of Asia and Rwanda and Darfur of the region.

In nutshell the security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan is changing very swiftly over a week। The war against terrorism in Afghanistan led by US is not making desired headway. General Patreus has admitted that they are not winning the war. In a diplomatic style, he of course said that the situation would improve once as proposed 17000 American troops reach into Afghanistan. But many experts in strategic and defence fields feel that situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are completely different. In Iraq the country was blocked and no tangible support or logistic inputs were available for the Iraqi insurgents, whereas; in Afghanistan the situation is different. Mullah-Omar and Osama-bin-Laden, both are alive and commanding their men, in Iraq after the capture of Saddam the insurgents were virtually leaderless and unorganised. They made some desperate attacks but thoroughly unorganised and ill coordinated. Taliban on the other hand is proving so far unmatched with world’s best army, thanks to the local tribal support from both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban is gaining ground repulsing the govt forces from country side। In fact Hamid Karzai’s writs don’t run beyond Kabul. The ministers, governors, govt offices, embassies and even jails are not safe and Taliban is capable of striking anywhere any time. The high security prison in Kabul was blown and prisoners including Taliban inmates were freed. Situation is such that even Presidential palace in Kabul is considered ‘not safe’. The supply line across north-west of Pakistan is highly unsafe and US had to solicit support from Russia for an alternate supply route to which Russia did agree but with a bargain. It too wants a role to play in this region.

The rampant corruption in Afghanistan amongst its bureaucracy, Police and diplomats is marring all efforts of reconstruction and reconciliation। Even American army officials are not exception to these pandemics. The good will, once generated after Taliban’s ouster from Kabul, is eroding. The Afghan tribes, the autonomy loving people are frustrated with these developments and therefore; the local population is getting hostile towards the alliance forces day by day. The call of Taliban to oust, ‘foreign mercenaries’ as what it call, from its soil is finding sympathetic space in the hearts of common Afghanis also. This emotional call of Taliban has aggravated the problem for American in Afghanistan.

Under these circumstances Obama has vividly accepted that American forces are not winning the war in Afghanistan and he candidly accepted that on principle he is exploring to engage, what he called liberal and moderate elements in Taliban, in dialogue. In an interview to The New York Times, he said he ponders outreach to moderate elements in Taliban. Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy of Obama’s administration might have advised US president to so drawing experience from Iraq perhaps. In Iraq, Shias were engaged in dialogue and seems to have paid back in restoring some amount of peace. America wants to re-do this experiment in Afghanistan. Let’s hope and pray that this formulae works.
Well, only time will tell that whether any moderate Taliban really exists or not. Some experts are of the opinion that there is no good or ban Taliban and Taliban do not have any moderates, all they have are extremists and religious fundamentalists.
This marks a major shift in the established American policy towards Taliban. This is going to have profound impact on security environment in the entire region, south-Asian region in general and Indian in particular.
On the other hand the situation in Pakistan is fast moving away from normal। The showdown between Zardari and Nawaz over the Supreme Court’s verdict which went against the Nawaz and his brother Sahwaz, snow balled into an unprecedented political crisis with the General Ashfaz Parvez Kayani giving ultimatum to Zardari either to improve situation or face the music. Although the situation could be averted by timely intervention of Americans in the power echelon and Zardari was made to accede to the demand, otherwise the situation was likely to go to a point of no return.

In spite of the temporary truce between Nawaz and Zardari, the person chemistry between them is far from satisfactory and friendly. They have been still at logger heads and any political mishandling would led to all out war between them.
Even before this political and security crisis, the security situation in Pakistan has been fast slipping out of the hands of government over some time. The complete surrender of Pakistani government in swat valley which is hardly 100 Kilometres away from Islamabad, to Taliban is the testimony of ever-growing power of Taliban in Pakistan. The purchased peaces in Swat, once an alpine tourist valley in exchange of introduction of Shariat law has stopped the fire throwing mouth of the guns for the time being but the authority of the government has been thoroughly undermined. The lapis lazuli mines of swat valley have reported to be brought under Taliban’s control. The poppy cultivation in many areas in Pakistan by the Jihadists and Taliban is also adding to their coffers. According to one estimate Taliban controls more than 2/3rd of the illegal arms and drug trade which is approximately 3-4 trillion US dollars. Such is the economic and military strength of these elements.
The advance of Taliban is thus undeterred and unchecked. In fact in the entire FATA, major parts of Baluchistan and Waziristan, govt writs are not running. The situation is such that if one fine morning Islamabad itself is captured by the Taliban, no one should take it as surprise. Thus the political, security and economic situation in Pakistan is ripe for such things to happen. One thing is amply clear that the days of Zardari are fast running out. Even if this time Military takeover is averted, the situation in Pakistan is worsening day by day and getting out of control of the establishment.
Taking into consideration both the developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the security situation in India is likely to be seriously threatened। How far after all are our borders from these areas? T.V channels telecasted that Taliban is coming! Is it only a TRP driven rhetoric or do we really face such a situation, needs to be contemplated.

IMPACT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON INDIA- India has been the softest target of Pakistani militants, right from its birth as an independent nation in 1947. We all know and it is too obvious and simple a proposition to be discussed that the humiliating defeat of Pakistan at the hands of India thrice has forced it to switch over to proxy war and subsequently low intensity war in Indian territory. The ongoing terrorist activities in India are handiwork of Pakistan and it is proven beyond a shadow of doubt.
The subjugation of Swat valley to the Taliban is of special significance with respect to India. An unholy nexus developed between Al-Qaida and Taliban in Afghanistan in order to fight against the Americans. This nexus gradually grew and flourished and took the shape of international terrorism. Many experts in this field believe that all other small or big terrorist organisations in one way or the other are logistically linked with this grand alliance of Al-Qaida and Taliban.
The figures of terrorist attacks in India and for that matter elsewhere in the world have undergone a huge qualitative and quantitative change. The mechanism as well as intensity has enhanced.
With the swat coming to the Taliban’s hegemony, this nexus has found a new base in Pakistan which is of immense strategic importance. Swat is hardly 100 kms away from Islamabad and roughly 70 Kms away from Peshawar. It these distances are calculated Indian capital New Delhi is hardly 758 kms away from Islamabad and Lahore only 427 kms. Obviously our western command will be very near to the swat valley. Pakistan has developed intermediate and short range missiles like Abdali, Ghaznavi, both short range, Ghauri, Ghauri I, II, medium range Ghauri III (ICBM) Shaheen, Shaheen I, II and III etc.
Swat is just a sojourn of Taliban and Al-Qaida duo and they will consolidate their position here. Unfortunately, the command and control system of these missile and nuclear warheads are in the hands of military rather than civilian govt. It is a well known fact that there is one another unholy nexus between ISI and terrorists organisations. Thus terrorists, ISI and military trio nexus has negated all the efforts of reconciliation. This has been revealed none other than by Nawaz Sharif himself regarding Kargil war.
It is in this perspective and situation, the recent developments in Pakistan is of serious concern for India. A democratic, stable, prosperous and non-fundamentalist Pakistan is in India’s interest.
With the Talibanisation of this strategic territory of swat valley, the above mentioned threats are looming large on India. The security situation in Kashmir is likely to further worsen. The terrorist influx into Indian Territory will increase. Kashmir went to poll and a democratically elected govt under the west educated CM came to power. The peace process is moving forward with more and more people are coming to mainstream and its testimony was witnessed in huge turnout in the last Assembly election. Peace and democracy are enemies of terrorists, therefore; this situation is likely to be threatened seriously.
If the situation in Pakistan is allowed to go to nadir, the grip of Taliban and other such forces would grow stronger and can seriously jeopardise the security of this Nation.
Any complacency on our part in this regard can prove to be disastrous। Shiv Shanker Menon was in USA to meet his counterpart Hillary Clinton. He has held wide ranging dialogue with his counterpart and many others in America. He has rightly said that the Afghanistan problem should be viewed and resolved in an integrated fashion. He meant thereby that any diplomatic or strategic manoeuvring or retreat without taking into India’s stand would be disastrous and would meet with fiasco. India has rightly objected to Holbrooke’s reported attempt to drag Kashmir into his mission. Fortunately Holbrooke too could perceive Indian’s mood and categorically stated that Kashmir is not an areas US wanted mediation. However India has to be too vigilant and pro-active vis-a-vis developments in its North West neighbours. Parvez Musaraff speech at India conclave only a few days ago smacked of Pakistan’s development. He wanted to incite Indian Muslims sentiment against the establishment. Thank to rebuff by Maulana Madni. United we stand divided we fall, though sounds and old and obsolete rhetoric, is the need of hour.

WHAT STEPS INDIA SHOULD TAKE NOW- The existence of Pakistan has become a problem not only for India but also for the whole region. Madeline Albright has rightly described it as Somalia of the region. It has become a failed state and will let many others to sink also. The ongoing so called peace process and composite dialogue are not going to solve the problem. The attitude of Pakistan towards has not changed and is not likely to change also. The so called investigation in 26/11 Mumbai attacks is the recent example of Pakistan’s lackesaidial and delay tactics attitude. Ajmal Kasab’s confessional statements and confession footage aired on Geo TV in Pakistan has cleared all the doubts but still Pakistan is not prepared to come to terms. In the given circumstances India needs to take recourse to some decisive and drastic diplomatic and military steps. Hot pursuits into Pakistan borders and demolition of training camps are some of the most desired steps. The soft attitude of India has been taken for granted by our neighbours as well as terrorists. Time has come that we should not only break the diplomatic relation with Pakistan but take recourse to other options available in accordance with the provisions of internal law. But breaking Pakistan as a Nation is not an acceptable proposition. It is against the principles of international law as well as Geneva Convention. Pakistan has a right to remain as a Nation but it does not have a right not to allow others to live like this. A happy, prosperous, peaceful and stable democratic Pakistan is as important for India as it is for an average and common Pakistanis.