DEVELOPMENTS IN NEPAL; LESSONS FOR INDIA

TOO CLOSE TO BE SEPARATED

The infant democracy of Himalayan Kingdom, Nepal, has been put into incubator for supplying oxygen and dosing some more testing medicines to keep it survived. The abrupt resignation of Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda over General Katwal, the Chief of Armed Staff’s issue, has raised many questions which urgently require answers both from domestic political and administrative classes and international community. Some experts believe that Prachanda did it out of sheer political immaturity and he should have waited and bargained a little more before tendering his resignation. But it seems academically naive to think like this. Prachanda who gained huge experience of running Jan Andolan or people’s agitation against monarchy in particular and political establishments in general therefore could not be taken as politically immature personality.
Anyway, the crisis has come and that too in a time when India is limping through its own elections, the result of which is likely to give birth to a fractured mandate in the Parliament।

The birth of democracy in Nepal could be possible after a Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the CPA, was signed by Seven Parties Alliance and the Maoists. It was a land mark in the political history of not only of Nepal but of the entire South Asian region in the sense that it was an experiment of electoral politics with Maoism. It was altogether a new concept and nobody even in China had ever thought of it. It was a positive sign and in India also the idea of bringing Naxalites into the electoral politics started gaining grounds.
The wedding of Maoism with Election leads a situation to develop in Nepal and the Monarchy was dismantled and democratic republic came into being. The Peace process was initiated and constituent assembly was voted to existence. UN mission in Nepal, the UNMIN, which oversaw the surrender of Maoists guerrillas, also played a vital role.
The first set back of Prachanda, the supreme leader of Maoists in Nepal came in the elections which were held to constitute the Constituent Assembly। In this election he could secure only 229 out of total 601 seats bagging only 38.1% votes. After initial confusion as to whether Prachanda will like to be PM or President, he finally choose to become the first PM of Nepal and the Presidency went to one Ram Baran Yadav, a madhesi origin of Nepali Congress. Prachanda wanted to integrate his People Liberation Army, the PLA, erstwhile guerrillas, with the Nepali Army. In fact this integration plan had been one of the most important conditions of Prachanda to agree to the CPA. His Plans of integration has been not acceptable to India for obvious political and security reasons. Prachanda’s insistence of this plan smacked the Chinese influence and perhaps due to this reason it was not acceptable to other left wing parties like UML and Communist Party of Nepal ML also. Every one feared of Prachandisation of Nepal Army.

SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA AND WHAT INDIA SHOULD DO NOW- India cannot remain indifferent to what is going on in the Himalayan region। The developments in this country are certainly going to have strategic, political and security impact on India. India perforce needs to employ a range of diplomatic measures but at the same time should ensure that Nepal or Nepalese should not feel hurt of being interfered with their internal affairs. In fact the naiveté of our political and diplomatic establishments have already done huge damage to our image of being neutral during Jan andolan phase II, after which the Monarchy was thrown out. The Nepalese psyche still feels that India was favouring King Gynendra when public at large was in no mood to spare the King. Why do we fail to understand the public psyche? We sent Dr. Karan Singh as an envoy to Nepal to avert the crisis who was somehow related to the King’s dynasty. It evoked strong reaction amongst the public against India. This time we should avoid playing the game with emotions. Foreign policy should be based on pragmatism rather that idealism. Unfortunately we lose the game even after performing the best while others win without delivering anything. This is the paradox of our foreign policy. We win wars and lose diplomacy. Tashkent and Simla Agreement are the best examples in our diplomatic history.

The Chinese influence on Nepal is perceptible in almost every walk of life. This crisis may provide China more conducive and congenial environment to intrude into the governance and society more intensely than ever before. The Madhesi and Pahari divide of Nepalese civil society is almost vertical. The further intrusion of Chinese would aggravate the situation and thus would make the conditions in Nepal more hostile for India.
The first and foremost task that the political parties are required to do is to form a govt. India may tacitly but silently play a role in achieving this goal. Any mishandling of the situation may snow ball into withdrawal of Prachanda from the CPA. The result of such withdrawal would be catastrophic. The entire peace process may de-rail and the security situation across the Indo-Nepal border would deteriorate. The UNMIN, which has overseen the disarming of PLA, has categorically conveyed its dissatisfaction. The reports suggest that only few thousands of 303 rifles, country made guns, and small number of ammunitions were surrendered. It means that the PLA cadres still has enough arms and ammunitions with them and in case of failure of CPA and their subsequent reversal into jungles for launching agitation, these arms could be used. Development of such type of situation is unaffordable for India; we are already in a war like situation on North-West fronts, thanks to the Talibanisation of areas like Swat and Buner in Pakistan.
The Nepalese leaders on the other hand should concentrate on drafting of the Constitution for the Republic of Nepal, a task that is least attended so far। Reports coming from unconfirmed sources suggest that the drafting of the constitution has not yet begun in the real sense of the term। If the present trend of instability goes unabated, the situation would get out of control and unprecedented political crisis would crop up. India can provide some support on this issue with the consent of the parties in power. We have huge experience on this issue and India can boasts of a sound constitutional foundation. We have galaxy of eminent constitutional luminaries who can be of immense help for them, if their services are solicited.