When Iran went to tenth Presidential Election on 12th this month, International community thought that this election would usher in a new era of reconciliation and accommodation. Iran is going Lebanon’s way; was common perception. Victory of Saad Hariri in Lebanon was widely interpreted as victory of peace and reconciliation. In fact, Iran witnessed unprecedented public enthusiasm for the first time after establishment of Islamic republic. During election campaign, Iran’s streets were filled with huge crowds and the election debates between Ahamdinejad, the sitting President of Abadgaran Party and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Independent Reformist were televised in western democratic style; something rarely heard in Islamic countries. Sentiments of Iranian people ran high and there was a huge voter turnout. According to Iran’s official announcements, about 75% of 46.2 million eligible voters exercised their franchise in this election. Most of International media, independent observers and journalists were of the opinion that this time Iran will vote for change. The kind of support which Mousavi was getting during his election campaign made most of the people, even in Iran, feel that Iran would vote Ahamadinejad out.
But when results were announced everyone including Moasauvi was surprised. Ahamdinejad was declared victorious in an unprecedented hurriedly manner. Interior Ministry proclaimed that incumbent President has won by huge margin securing 24,527,516(62.63%) popular votes as against Mosauvi who could secure only 13,216,411(33.75%) votes.
This announcement sparked protests across Iran and the very same day Mosauvi said that elections have been rigged. The ‘Stolen Result’ would not be accepted, he said and gradually the streets of Iran swelled by people. In the meantime, Ahmadinejad’s supporters also staged huge victory rallies in many parts including Tehran. The clash was imminent and casualties were obvious.
WHY ARE THESE PROTESTS SO DIFFERENCE- Popular protests against establishment in Iran is quite unusual. Protests on such scale which are said to be spontaneous and subterranean have been unheard in Iran for many years. Some people say that it reminds the days of Iranian revolution when such huge protests were common place against Shah Pahalavi in 1978-79. The popular protests during those were so powerful and unprecedented that Shah had to quit throne as well as country despite American and West support paving way for establishment of Islamic Republic in Iran. Ayatollah Khumeini became Iran’s supreme leader and reined the oil rich country almost without any resistance and dissent. After Ayatollah Khumeini, Ayatollah Khamenei took over the rein of supreme leader of the republic. Over a period of time, Iran got its institutions established and a new kind of democracy grew which is different from western type of democracy in a big way. In this democracy people have a right to elect President and other representatives but only ‘just one’ and these just candidates would be selected by ‘Supreme Leader’ and ‘Guardian Council’. This is how the democracy in this country is different from host of other countries. The dissents are not allowed especially against the clergy and Islamic institutions.
But the ongoing protests are not being silenced even after Ayatollah’s stern warning which he gave while giving addressing a crowd after Friday’s prayers in Tehran. Khamenei reportedly said that those who are opposing Ahmadinejad’s election are enemies of Iran and agents of west. He went up to saying that now if anybody continues to protest, would be held himself responsible for anything bad if occurs to him. Experts say that it is one of the strongest warnings Ayatollah has ever given in recent past. But the protesting Iranian people are not willing to relent to such threats and they are all set to defy warnings of Ayatollah something unthinkable in Iran. That is why it is being said that these protests are unprecedented and could have far reaching political and social consequences.
CRACKS IN CLERGY AND LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN AYATOLLAH- It is not so that clergy in Iran still is a monolith structure. The kind of which has been prevailing since Islamic Revolution of 1979 has perhaps started waning if not disappeared. In fact the young generation which forms the majority of the protesting crowd is post Islamic Revolution generation. Most of these young students, intellectuals, unemployed youths, young businessmen have either taken birth after 1979 or were quite young that time, therefore their passion towards Islamic revolution would be different from older generation who have either taken part in that revolution or have witnessed it.
With the passage of time, the clergy in Iran has not metamorphosed. They hardly represent the aspirations of young generation who have seen freedom, liberty and democracy of west. Interestingly, the same Iran University has again becoming the epicentre of these protests which has spearheaded a strong movement against Shah leading to his ouster some thirty years ago. When official results of this controversial presidential election was announced by the internal ministry, Ahmadinejad was quick to endorse this verdict. He stood by Ahamadinejad and asked the Iranian people to do the same. But as the protesters stated pouring into towns and taking to capital’s Vali asr square and many other important venue, Ayatollah Khamnei took U turn and announced that he would ask the Guardian Council to investigate into formal 646 allegations and could order for re-counting of ballots in some areas. But the supporters of Mosauvi and other protesters are not willing to come to terms and they stick to annulment of the entire election itself. They feel that Ayatollah is buying time. Popular mood is such that now People would not accept anything less than re-election itself. In the meantime cracks have started appearing in the clergy itself. The support base of Mir-Hossein Mousavi has started widening with Hashmi Rafshanjani, son of Md Khatmi, the ex President of Iran, son of Shah Pavalvi and host of other such important personalities coming in his support. It is said some more cracks would likely to occur in the establishment. Rafshanjani heads a council which appoints Iran’s Supreme Leader and can remove him also. With Rafshanjani’s coming openly in Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s support, the hold of Ayatollah is likely to weaken. It is however early and premature to predict that the threat of Ayatollah’s ouster is looming large, but it the present trend of protests with accelerating pace and intensifying magnitude goes unabated, which have already spread in areas like Isfahan, Rasht, Zanjan and Zahendan etc, the situation may arise when a group of clergy, which is already disgruntled and disenchanted with Ayatollah many resort to such act of extreme nature.
FEAR OF LARGE SCALE VIOLENCE AND BACKLASH- according to reports coming out of Iran scanned through censorship; about a dozen people have so far lost their lives. In the meantime Basijis, Islamic Volunteer Militiamen having allegiance to Ahmaidnejad and Ayatollah have started resorting to violence against the protestors. These masked men armed with deadly weapons reportedly come out in night, pickup protestors, beat them mercilessly and sometime these abducted protestors become traceless also. Basijis were created during Islamic Revolution days by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on November 1979. Literally it means ‘Mobilisation of Oppressed’ and officially named as ‘Moqanemate Basij’ or Iranian Paramilitary Force, earned notoriety over decades and is working as private militia of establishment and especially of Ayatollah. Ahamdinejad knows that he is under watch and repression by state Police and Army or Revolutionary Guards to the protestors, may boomerang like anything therefore Basijis are being used to mute the voices in the streets at nights. It is like Brown shirts of Hitler which was used by him to silent the voices of dissent.
Such type of fear tactics psychologically betrays that authorities are afraid of magnitude of subterranean dissent, therefore wants to nip them at any cost. History taught us that such repressions do boomerang and are counterproductive. Surprisingly, Police forces so far have shown restraints in using excessive force. They are reportedly trying to keep Pro and Anti demonstrators isolated so that collateral damages are minimised. There is no denying the fact that there may be large number of sympathisers of Mir-Hossein Mousavi in police or at least they may not be subscribing to Ayatollah’s fatwa regarding Ahamdinejad’s victory. The anger against this, which many call ‘ the stolen results’ is such that members of Iranian Football team also wore green badges in the game and expressed solidarity with the protestors.
In the above backdrop, Iranian society is trying to tumult because youth, academia, farmers, workers and many other sections of newer generation wants reform, firstly within existing system itself, but lastly they would not hesitate changing the system itself if it withstood in its way. The obstinacy of establishment in not listening to the popular voices will have to pay price for it; change or perish; because within a couple weeks, this agitation would go out of hand and will not be confined to the demand of annulment of election but would metamorphose into change of establishment itself. That is why it is not an exaggeration to say that Iran may be heading towards another revolution.
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