AFGANISTANISATION OF PAKISTAN?

PLAY WITH FIRE; HOW LONG YOU REMAIN PROTECTED?

The Taliban is advancing and taking control over new areas in Pakistan. The army has so far failed to contain this advance. The Pakistan army’s offensive has not deterred the Taliban. More than 2 lakh people have been displaced from swat valley itself. According to the UN aid agencies more that 3 lakh people have so far been displaced and have taken shelters in relief camps. The situation in swat, Mingora, Buner, Dir and other adjoining area has fast deteriorating due to heavy fighting between heavily armed Taliban and Pakistan Army. Reports suggest that the fighting has intensified after PM Gilani’s order to the army to clear Swat and other areas from Taliban. Taliban has encircled one Police Station in Mingora town and about 140 Police men are trapped and are likely to be killed if army does not yet send reinforcement and repulse the Taliban fighters.

UNHCR spokesman Ron Redmond has said in the affected areas that an unprecedented human tragedy is imminent in the area and if humanitarian aid like tents, medicines, food, drinking water etc are not made available, large number of people especially women and children would die. It is necessary that this human tragedy should be averted and the fighting should be brought to a logical conclusion soon. So far as the hope of end of hostilities in these areas is concerned, it is not possible in near future.

President Zardari is in Washington to held dialogue with Barrack Obama and Hamid Karzai, the counterparts of USA and Afghanistan. Zardari had to face some tough and embarrassing questions from both media persons and some senators also. He had to face the question that what he had to say about the alleged nexus between ISI and Militants? He could not give any satisfactory answer to this question. Likely its earlier stereotype stand on India; Zardari orchestrated the same rhyme and said that if India withdraw its forces from North Western border so that he can what he says, deploy more force for tackling the Taliban fighters. Zardari further says that he hopes for improving the relation with India after the general election here. Both justifications sound hollow and do not seem acceptable. The advance of Taliban in areas like Mingora, Shangala, Buner, Dir etc had been going unabated and unchecked for years. The so-called peace agreement reached between Pakistan Taliban and Pak government was a milestone in the history of terrorism in this region. It marked the beginning of consolidation of terrorists in Pakistan in much more big way. It also thoroughly undermined the authority of the government. It was perhaps due to this fact the Taliban’ morale was bolstered to a great extent and it ventured into fresh areas like Migora, Shangala, dir etc and captured them. These areas are still under their suzerainty and the writs of the Pakistan government do not run here. Although the PM has ordered his troops to wage an all out war against the Taliban and flush them out within 24 hours, the possibility of waging such war is remote keeping in mind the history and chemistry of Pakistani forces. The unholy nexus between Pakistani army, ISI and Jihad and terrorist elements in Pakistan is an open secret. The startling disclosure of Dr Abdul Kadir Khan, the father of Islamic Nuclear Bomb, had already exposed the nefarious designs of the Islamic Jihadis including Taliban and Al-Qaeda. In fact this whole episode of Taliban should be conceived in this wider perspective. If this Talibanisation of Pakistan goes unchecked and un-deterred, they would be capturing some vital security and strategic installations also within a couple of weeks from now. Tarbela hydro electric power dam is located not too far from Mingora and Swat. This is the place where some of the nuclear fuel and heavy water of Pakistan are kept. This installation is so strategically important that its capture by the Taliban can give them an access to the nuclear arsenals. The reports, though unconfirmed, but not unsubstantiated, suggest that the technology for an Islamic Nuclear Bomb has some how sneaked into the hands of these elements.
Surprisingly, the USA is not so serious to deal and wipe out this menace as it should be. How can US administration take the assurances of the Pakistan’s President for guaranteed with respect to coming heavily down on the Taliban? Such type of assurances had have been given earlier also but the situation has not improved, in fact it has gone from bad to worse. What a tragedy! Actually the whole diplomatic drama in Washington which Zardari played with Obama and Karzai a couple of days ago was aimed at notching multimillion dollar aid from America. Ironically he succeeded in it also. This time also he successfully befooled the international community including the USA which has recently voted for a change from white President to Black President. Undoubtedly this fund would be utilized for conducting anti-India tirade and military buildup across the LOC once this state manage drama is over.
What a huge disproportionate comparison! After 9/11 US launched full fledged war against Afghanistan to teach Al-Qaeda a lesson, but we have been advised to maintain restrain after Mumbai attack despite the fact that one of the attackers has been captured alive who has admitted candidly before the world of his involvement in the mayhem.
The situation is not going to improve in Pakistan even if Gilani genuinely tries to clear Pakistan from Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The reason is simple. The army or at least major part of the Pakistan Army is contaminated with fundamentalism and the utopian concept of Afghanistanisation of Pakistan and later on Islamisation of the whole world have been indoctrinated into the hearts and minds of the rank and file of Pakistan’s army. America must understand this and should engage itself into Pakistan because the situation here in much more precarious than the Afghanistan itself. If the tattered Government of Pakistan tries to enforce its decree, the army may again stage a coup against the civilian government and it seems Pakistan is heading towards it very fast

DEVELOPMENTS IN NEPAL; LESSONS FOR INDIA

TOO CLOSE TO BE SEPARATED

The infant democracy of Himalayan Kingdom, Nepal, has been put into incubator for supplying oxygen and dosing some more testing medicines to keep it survived. The abrupt resignation of Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda over General Katwal, the Chief of Armed Staff’s issue, has raised many questions which urgently require answers both from domestic political and administrative classes and international community. Some experts believe that Prachanda did it out of sheer political immaturity and he should have waited and bargained a little more before tendering his resignation. But it seems academically naive to think like this. Prachanda who gained huge experience of running Jan Andolan or people’s agitation against monarchy in particular and political establishments in general therefore could not be taken as politically immature personality.
Anyway, the crisis has come and that too in a time when India is limping through its own elections, the result of which is likely to give birth to a fractured mandate in the Parliament।

The birth of democracy in Nepal could be possible after a Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the CPA, was signed by Seven Parties Alliance and the Maoists. It was a land mark in the political history of not only of Nepal but of the entire South Asian region in the sense that it was an experiment of electoral politics with Maoism. It was altogether a new concept and nobody even in China had ever thought of it. It was a positive sign and in India also the idea of bringing Naxalites into the electoral politics started gaining grounds.
The wedding of Maoism with Election leads a situation to develop in Nepal and the Monarchy was dismantled and democratic republic came into being. The Peace process was initiated and constituent assembly was voted to existence. UN mission in Nepal, the UNMIN, which oversaw the surrender of Maoists guerrillas, also played a vital role.
The first set back of Prachanda, the supreme leader of Maoists in Nepal came in the elections which were held to constitute the Constituent Assembly। In this election he could secure only 229 out of total 601 seats bagging only 38.1% votes. After initial confusion as to whether Prachanda will like to be PM or President, he finally choose to become the first PM of Nepal and the Presidency went to one Ram Baran Yadav, a madhesi origin of Nepali Congress. Prachanda wanted to integrate his People Liberation Army, the PLA, erstwhile guerrillas, with the Nepali Army. In fact this integration plan had been one of the most important conditions of Prachanda to agree to the CPA. His Plans of integration has been not acceptable to India for obvious political and security reasons. Prachanda’s insistence of this plan smacked the Chinese influence and perhaps due to this reason it was not acceptable to other left wing parties like UML and Communist Party of Nepal ML also. Every one feared of Prachandisation of Nepal Army.

SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA AND WHAT INDIA SHOULD DO NOW- India cannot remain indifferent to what is going on in the Himalayan region। The developments in this country are certainly going to have strategic, political and security impact on India. India perforce needs to employ a range of diplomatic measures but at the same time should ensure that Nepal or Nepalese should not feel hurt of being interfered with their internal affairs. In fact the naiveté of our political and diplomatic establishments have already done huge damage to our image of being neutral during Jan andolan phase II, after which the Monarchy was thrown out. The Nepalese psyche still feels that India was favouring King Gynendra when public at large was in no mood to spare the King. Why do we fail to understand the public psyche? We sent Dr. Karan Singh as an envoy to Nepal to avert the crisis who was somehow related to the King’s dynasty. It evoked strong reaction amongst the public against India. This time we should avoid playing the game with emotions. Foreign policy should be based on pragmatism rather that idealism. Unfortunately we lose the game even after performing the best while others win without delivering anything. This is the paradox of our foreign policy. We win wars and lose diplomacy. Tashkent and Simla Agreement are the best examples in our diplomatic history.

The Chinese influence on Nepal is perceptible in almost every walk of life. This crisis may provide China more conducive and congenial environment to intrude into the governance and society more intensely than ever before. The Madhesi and Pahari divide of Nepalese civil society is almost vertical. The further intrusion of Chinese would aggravate the situation and thus would make the conditions in Nepal more hostile for India.
The first and foremost task that the political parties are required to do is to form a govt. India may tacitly but silently play a role in achieving this goal. Any mishandling of the situation may snow ball into withdrawal of Prachanda from the CPA. The result of such withdrawal would be catastrophic. The entire peace process may de-rail and the security situation across the Indo-Nepal border would deteriorate. The UNMIN, which has overseen the disarming of PLA, has categorically conveyed its dissatisfaction. The reports suggest that only few thousands of 303 rifles, country made guns, and small number of ammunitions were surrendered. It means that the PLA cadres still has enough arms and ammunitions with them and in case of failure of CPA and their subsequent reversal into jungles for launching agitation, these arms could be used. Development of such type of situation is unaffordable for India; we are already in a war like situation on North-West fronts, thanks to the Talibanisation of areas like Swat and Buner in Pakistan.
The Nepalese leaders on the other hand should concentrate on drafting of the Constitution for the Republic of Nepal, a task that is least attended so far। Reports coming from unconfirmed sources suggest that the drafting of the constitution has not yet begun in the real sense of the term। If the present trend of instability goes unabated, the situation would get out of control and unprecedented political crisis would crop up. India can provide some support on this issue with the consent of the parties in power. We have huge experience on this issue and India can boasts of a sound constitutional foundation. We have galaxy of eminent constitutional luminaries who can be of immense help for them, if their services are solicited.

VIOLENCE IN ELECTION IN BIHAR

IS FEAR OF ECI NON-EXISTENT?

The second phase of polling on 23rd April, 2009 went off but not peacefully as claimed by the election commission. 13 of out all 40 constituency went to polls in the second phase was also marred by violence, incidents of booth capturing and mismanagement on the polling stations.
Naxalites again stroked in Bihar killing 5 security personnel including one Patrolling magistrate named sunil Kumar at Karpori nahar culvert in Deoria PS in Muzaffarpur district of vaishali constituency. The naxalistes had planted landmine in the said culvert which exploded as the vehicle carrying the polling personnel who were returning after the poll crossed the culvert, leaving all the personnel dead and the driver seriously injured.
The state had also witnessed large scale violence during the first phase of poll in which more than 19 persons lost their lives including BSF and state police personnel.
2nd Phase of polls also cannot be said to have passed off smoothly and as many as 287 persons including one sitting MLA have been reportedly arrested, whereas; as many as 27 polling stations went without a single vote casted due to poll boycott due to lack of development in the concerned areas.
From polling percentage also, this phase was not successful and only 44% of the voters could exercise their voting rights. Political and media pundits tag scorching heat as the main reason but the high voter’s turn out in states like naxalites infested Andhra (68%) insurgency infested Assam(62%) and Jharkhand(48%) falsify their claims. The reasons according to many experts are voter’s apathy, apprehension of violence, naxalite’s boycott call and mismanagement on the booths. In many cases polling could not start timely due to non or improper functioning of EVMs. The slow rate of casting of votes due to improper and inadequate training of polling personnel has also been one of the main reasons of low voting percentage in the state.
From security arrangement point of view, this election felt the absence of K.J.Rao, the ex advisor whose name had become synonymous with free and fair election in the previous election especially in Bihar. The situation is such that two phases of polls have passed and ECI (CEC and ECs) did not visit the state. Before both the phases, only Navin Chawla came and did the formalities of holding discussions with the senior police and civil officials. Many of complaints have either been dumped or not properly investigated. The body language of chawla has failed to instil a sense of fear amongst the senior bureaucrats which has resulted in poor and some time biased deployment of police forces including CPMF. Unlike K.J. Rao and previous ECs and CEC, Chawla or for that matter Gopalswamy and other EC did not visit interior areas so that sense of confidence is instilled in the voter, especially vulnerable voters. The theory of ‘Randomisation of CPMF’ for deployment of central Paramilitary forces developed by KJ Rao was also not put into practice. One senior police official admitted on condition of anonymity that the present police set up in the state police head quarters did not repeat this theory because Abhayanad as ADG rank officer was instrumental in this exercise in the previous elections. This acrimony and adoption of non professionalism have resulted in violence. Unfortunately this point has not been highlighted by majority of media.
The situation is such that reportedly in Motihari district about 5000 security personnel kept on waiting for poll duty whole day on the 23rd, the day of poll and they could not be sent to the booths. In the first phase also, the naxalites infested districts like Jammui, Nawadah, Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehandbad etc went without 100% both covering by Police personnel as instructed by ECI. In Gaya, the DGP himself admitted that Home guards were deployed which was clear cut violation of security norms, unfortunately this laxity resulted in tragic death of those home guard. All the arms and ammunitions too were looted from them by the naxalites. In Jammui which went to poll in the first phase also witness large scale violence but majority of CPMF were sitting idle due to non deployment in the booths.
The acrimony in the ECI on the eve of Elections too has manifested in poor show which resulted in the above situation to develop. If the above situation is allowed to go unchecked and un-rectified, the third phase of elections scheduled on 30th April, 2009 may witness more violence both in terms of numbers and intensity.

MAOISM;WHO FUNDS THEM AND HOW TO WEED IT OUT

BRING THEM TO MAINSTREAM AND GIVE THEM THEIR SHARE

The Maoism in its different rabid and dangerous forms is increasing both in strength and territorial expansion. Once germinated in Naxalbari area of West Bengal has now engulfed states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh etc. it has also spread in some areas of Maharashtra and Utter Pradesh also. With passage of time, months and years more and more geographical areas are being infected by this menace. Now the stereotype concept of Maoists living in Jungles has eclipsed and they are now not only residing in plain areas but can and are striking the establishments whenever and wherever they wish.

The question that hounds every body’s mind is that who funds them and why in spite of huge security and intelligence network and establishment, India is not capable of weeding it out. In fact what to talk to wiping it out, it is spreading like a pandemic and no solution is perceptible at least in near future. 

The essay is an attempt to discuss and suggest ways to tackle this menace from politico-administrative angle.

The growing tentacles of Maoism and Extremism in many parts of the country are posing serious threats to Internal Security. One should not confuse this problem with Terrorism. The basic difference between Maoism and Terrorism is that, the former wages war against the ruling class and system but the declared aim is not seceding from the country, whereas; the later threatens the system itself. The aim of the Terrorism is generally to attack on the existence of the state itself, whereas; Maoism’s aim is to attack on the establishment.

The beginning of the Naxal or Maoist movement is traced back to 1967 itself in Naxalbari area of West Bengal. Charu Majumdar is said to be the man who started this movement in India. In Bihar the beginning of this movement is traced back to last 1970s when this movement was started in Mushari Block of Muzaffarpur district. Now this movement is an all India phenomena and has spread its tentacles in states like Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, M.P., Orissa, Jharkhand and many other areas of UP and Maharashtra also. On 13th March, 2006 the then Union Minister for Home, Sri Shiv Raj Patil tabled in Parliament a Status Paper on the problem of Left-wing Extremism i.e. Maoism in India. If one looks at the reports and the figures appended with the report, one can understand very easily the problem of the left-Extremism has assumed an all-India character. According to this official report, which is often deliberately less intensifies; say that 509 Police Stations across 11 States are Maoist-Naxalites infested. It is 5.8% of the total police stations of India. The report further suggest that after the merger of CPML-PW into CPI(Maoist) in September 2004, they are reported to be trying to woo the other splinter groups and have consolidated their front organisations Revolutionary Democratic Front(RDF)to intensify their mass contact programme. Although, this report points out various steps like (a) Modernisation of Police Force (b) Revision of Security Related Expenditure(SRE) in May,2005 (c) Supply of Anti-Land Mine Vehicle (d)Long-term deployment of Para-Military forces (e) India Reserve Battalions etc, the situation is not showing the signs of improvement so far. 

Recent spurt in Maoist attacks both on the civilian and security establishments, in areas like Dantewada in Chhattisgarh, Mehboobnagar in AP, East and West Singhbhum in Jharkhand, Baripada, Kandhmal, Malkangiri etc in Orissa and many places in Bihar are of serious consequences. One DSP rank officer had been killed in a place called Bundu near the Jharkhand State’s capital, Ranchi. Few years back, the Maoists blew Jehenabad District’s Jail in Bihar and set free many jail mates including one Kanu sanyal the hard core Maoist. Such incidents have thoroughly demoralised the security forces to such extent that the police headquarters have withdrew many police pickets from the extremists infested areas. Areas, hitherto unaffected in Bihar have also been brought under its control by the naxalites and Maoists. In recent times, districts like Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, East and West Champaran, Samastipur, Madhubani, Sitamarhi and Sheohar have also been affected by this menace. In Madhuban Police Station of Motihari district, the Maoists attacked the police stations, killed many security personnel, looted the arms and ammunitions, attacked block and banks. The main target was a local MP whose petrol pump was gutted. They also set ablaze the house and business establishment of this leader. In June, 2008, the Maoists blew on block office called ‘tetariya’ in the same district Motihari. In July, 2008, the Maoists blew Laxmipur Block office in Jamui district, incidentally this area is the home town of a central minister. Thus, the Maoists have proved it without a shadow of doubt that they can blew and attack any target any time whenever and wherever they want.

On 3rd July ‘The Hindu’ writes in its editorial about the killing of the anti-naxal force in AP “the murderous attack on Andhra Pradesh anti-naxalite force, the greyhounds, marks a new watershed in Maoist insurgency. This is the first time that as many as 33 Andhra Pradesh security personnel have been killed in a single encounter. The police men evidently walked into a well-laid trap, enticed with false information about a Maoist’s conclave in Malkangiri in Orissa. If the attack was totally unexpected, it was partly because it marked a tactical departure; rather than use of land mines and typical ploy such as ambushes and raids, the Maoists are believed to have employed rocket launchers to hit a launch ferrying the policemen aback “. It is pertinent to mention here that the greyhound was formed in the year 1989 as an elite force to combat naxal-Maoist menace.

MAOIST MENACE AND NEPAL- The success of the Maoists in Nepal has emboldened the morale of the Maoists in India to a great extent. In fact their infamous slogan FROM PASHUPATI SE TIRUPATI TAK is still relevant for them. They claim that now the one end i.e. Pashupati in Nepal has been brought under their control. Many security experts opine that the establishment of a red Government headed by Maoists is going to be a major Internal Security problem in India, whereas; many political observers believe that it is in a way, a positive development in the sense that now, what they feel, the Maoists will joined the political main stream and eschew violence. This is however a proposition which only time will decipher.

FROM WHERE THE MONEY COME TO MAOISTS-

The meteoric rise of these left extremist-Maoist organisations is not only on ideological grounds. They might have been pursuing some ideological principles in the initial phase, but now their main motto is extortion of money and plundering. Reports say that they are eating up the vitals of the developmental funds meant for developmental schemes. These extremists in form of levy take major portion of money meant for execution of Governmental schemes away. That is why these schemes have failed to come up to the expectation of common people. The policy makers, without looking into the ramification of such planning, went on increasing the size of the expenditures. The more money is pumped, the more is plundered. Thus, it has become a vicious circle of corruption, plunder and rise in the power of these elements. Whether it is MCC or PWG or Party Unity or its new name CPI (Maoist), their sole purpose is to extort money and snatch arms and ammunitions from the security forces. According to one estimate, about 70% of the arms of these Maoists belong to the security forces. The attack on the security forces serves the twin purposes. On the one hand, it instils a sense of fear in the common people, so that they follow their dictates and on the other hand, they snatch the arms and ammunitions from them which enhance their strike capabilities. They again use these weapons against the security forces themselves. This is how a unique kind of vicious circle goes on. Unemployment and poverty are the major causes of its spread. I have the first hand experience of these things, when I was posted as Circle Officer, Chandil, in West Singbhum district of the present Jharkhand State in 1996-99. I found here, how the local tribal unemployed youths were recruited by the Maoists in this area. The system had been institutionalised to such an extent, that it was more systematic than the security forces recruitment drives of Government itself. Moreover, such drives are free from corruptions, whereas; rampant corruption mars the Government recruitment drives. The morale of the extremists had emboldened in such a way, that they used pamphlets and posters to advertise such recruitment drive.

Incidentally, I got an opportunity of working as an Executive Magistrate in Raxaul, a bordering town of Birgunj in Nepal. I could understand how the Maoists were spreading their tentacles across the borders. Their call of from pashupati se tirupati tak is being pursued very meticulously and methodically. These Maoist-extremists, after committing crimes could sneak into Nepal very safely. I have seen how the porous border has become heaven for the arms peddlers and drug traffickers. Due to porous and open border the surveillance is very difficult. Initially, the deployment of SSB on this border had helped the situation improve. But, after few years, this force also got contaminated. The situation on this border is far from satisfactory. Now the situation in Nepal has changed drastically. The Monarchy is said goodbye and republic is born. The Maoists have won the election and are likely to form Government. A man of Indian origin Mr. Ram Baran Yadav has been elected as the first President of Republic of Nepal. It is being hoped that the situation in bordering areas would now improve. This new experiment of election with Maoism is believed to be the harbinger of peace in other areas also. It is a right time when we should also strive to create congenial environment to bring Maoists into political process. 

LOCAL SENAS and MAOISTS- Bihar is known for a typical security problem. In many parts of Bihar Maoists have been divided on caste and region lines and have formed so many senas or local armies. The situation becomes more precarious when they fight against each other. Here are some examples of local senas-

1. Ranveer sena- Bhumihar

2. Lorik Sena- Yadav

3. Bhumi sena- kurmi 

4. Search light sena- upper caste etc.

5. Sunlight Sena – Upper caste

These local senas have unleashed a reign of terror in many parts of the state for many years. Over a decade more than thousand people have lost their lives in inter and intra group fighting. Although, these massacres are not of national consequences but undoubtedly, it puts in lots of strain on the security forces. If the Internal Security scenario has to be improved, these tendencies must be checked. There are some infamous massacres here in Bihar which speaks about the horrendousness of the misdeeds of these senas. Bhelchhi massacre, dalelchak- Baghaura in jehanabad, senari massacre, etc. are some of the massacres which have taken thousands of precious lives. They, on the one hand tatter the social fabric and on the other hand it puts in enormous pressure on the security forces. The failure of land-reform measures in this state is said to be the main cause of such problems. But this is a very simplistic interpretation of this problem. Undoubtedly, in the initial years the land-reform measures were the reasons behind these problems, but, gradually it deviated from this stand and took the shape of typical caste organisations. Many political leaders also allegedly got involved into it. The erstwhile Government in Bihar had constituted one commission headed by a retired High Court Judge Mr. Justice Amir Das few years ago. But this commission did not do anything tangible and meaningful. It took nine years and could not come out with any findings and recommendation; therefore, the Government wound it up. Nonetheless, one thing is clear that this state is very sharply divided on caste line politics, because whenever the summons were served on one political person, the fellow caste men used to raise voice against it and thus this entire exercise proved to be worthless and wastage of time and resources. 

WHY DOES THE GOVERNEMENT FAIL TO TACKLE THEM EFFECTIVELY-

1. The biggest problem in tackling this problem lies in the system or the mechanism of our planning making bodies. Surprisingly in most of cases and most of time the problems are conceived and strategies are formulated by the people who do not have firsthand experience of these problems. The high sounding ideologies and stereotype principles are allowed to prevail on the realistic problems. The high sounding policies are formulated and are asked to be implemented by those who do not have any saying in this whole exercise.

2. The local Police Stations across the country have been thoroughly neglected by our strategists who sit in the power echelons. Instead of strengthening our Police stations both in terms of men and resources, we went on creating parallel institutions sometime of conflicting jurisdictions. Constitutionally speaking the subject Law and Order is the state subject, refer Article 246 seventh schedule, and Police Stations are the corner stone of this subject. We have well equipped paramilitary forces but with no legislative and statutory powers and conversely the local police stations are ill equipped but with immense legislative and penal powers. This discrepancy has to be removed but unfortunately we still are going the same path which would lead us to wrong destinations.

3. The Panchayat election of 2005-06 in Bihar is a path breaker example. The provision of 30% reservation for women and 27% reservation for extremely back ward classes i.e. EBC has done miracle here in this state. The Panchayat elections which were held without the help of Paramilitary forces went off almost violence free and only one person was left dead and that too was reportedly unconnected to poll. It gives a clear cut signal, give the people, the common and bereaved people, the power, the real power and make them partner in the governance. Conversely in the ongoing election 19 persons including security personnel have so far lost their lives. Many experts feel that common people in most of the poverty stricken areas do not feel associated with Parliamentary and legislative elections, because common and especially poor people’s chances of fighting in these election on political parties tickets are very bleak whereas; in party less Panchayat elections their involvement in terms of their candidature is much more intense and therefore they enjoy more sense of association in the panchayat elections in comparison with the parliamentary or legislative elections. 

4. Message is clear we will have to make our democratic institutions more democratic in the sense that they do not become the club of some elite families and confined some political personalities. Ensure that more and more poor and downtrodden fight election and win after all the tenet of democracy is for the people, by the people and of the people.

PAKISTAN;SOMALIA OF ASIA

(PLAYING WITH FIRE WILL BURN YOU TOO)

The war against terror in Pakistan and Afghanistan has converted the region a war zone and India is unnecessarily made part of it। US has miserably failed to tame Taliban and Al-Qaida militants even after billions of dollars have been injected into the entire exercise. The resources in terms of man and material which have been lost in this seemingly unending war are unparallel in modern history. The situation is worsening with every passing day and the hopes of illusive victory in this strife torn country is far from sight. Pakistan is becoming Somalia of Asia and Rwanda and Darfur of the region.

In nutshell the security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan is changing very swiftly over a week। The war against terrorism in Afghanistan led by US is not making desired headway. General Patreus has admitted that they are not winning the war. In a diplomatic style, he of course said that the situation would improve once as proposed 17000 American troops reach into Afghanistan. But many experts in strategic and defence fields feel that situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are completely different. In Iraq the country was blocked and no tangible support or logistic inputs were available for the Iraqi insurgents, whereas; in Afghanistan the situation is different. Mullah-Omar and Osama-bin-Laden, both are alive and commanding their men, in Iraq after the capture of Saddam the insurgents were virtually leaderless and unorganised. They made some desperate attacks but thoroughly unorganised and ill coordinated. Taliban on the other hand is proving so far unmatched with world’s best army, thanks to the local tribal support from both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban is gaining ground repulsing the govt forces from country side। In fact Hamid Karzai’s writs don’t run beyond Kabul. The ministers, governors, govt offices, embassies and even jails are not safe and Taliban is capable of striking anywhere any time. The high security prison in Kabul was blown and prisoners including Taliban inmates were freed. Situation is such that even Presidential palace in Kabul is considered ‘not safe’. The supply line across north-west of Pakistan is highly unsafe and US had to solicit support from Russia for an alternate supply route to which Russia did agree but with a bargain. It too wants a role to play in this region.

The rampant corruption in Afghanistan amongst its bureaucracy, Police and diplomats is marring all efforts of reconstruction and reconciliation। Even American army officials are not exception to these pandemics. The good will, once generated after Taliban’s ouster from Kabul, is eroding. The Afghan tribes, the autonomy loving people are frustrated with these developments and therefore; the local population is getting hostile towards the alliance forces day by day. The call of Taliban to oust, ‘foreign mercenaries’ as what it call, from its soil is finding sympathetic space in the hearts of common Afghanis also. This emotional call of Taliban has aggravated the problem for American in Afghanistan.

Under these circumstances Obama has vividly accepted that American forces are not winning the war in Afghanistan and he candidly accepted that on principle he is exploring to engage, what he called liberal and moderate elements in Taliban, in dialogue. In an interview to The New York Times, he said he ponders outreach to moderate elements in Taliban. Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy of Obama’s administration might have advised US president to so drawing experience from Iraq perhaps. In Iraq, Shias were engaged in dialogue and seems to have paid back in restoring some amount of peace. America wants to re-do this experiment in Afghanistan. Let’s hope and pray that this formulae works.
Well, only time will tell that whether any moderate Taliban really exists or not. Some experts are of the opinion that there is no good or ban Taliban and Taliban do not have any moderates, all they have are extremists and religious fundamentalists.
This marks a major shift in the established American policy towards Taliban. This is going to have profound impact on security environment in the entire region, south-Asian region in general and Indian in particular.
On the other hand the situation in Pakistan is fast moving away from normal। The showdown between Zardari and Nawaz over the Supreme Court’s verdict which went against the Nawaz and his brother Sahwaz, snow balled into an unprecedented political crisis with the General Ashfaz Parvez Kayani giving ultimatum to Zardari either to improve situation or face the music. Although the situation could be averted by timely intervention of Americans in the power echelon and Zardari was made to accede to the demand, otherwise the situation was likely to go to a point of no return.

In spite of the temporary truce between Nawaz and Zardari, the person chemistry between them is far from satisfactory and friendly. They have been still at logger heads and any political mishandling would led to all out war between them.
Even before this political and security crisis, the security situation in Pakistan has been fast slipping out of the hands of government over some time. The complete surrender of Pakistani government in swat valley which is hardly 100 Kilometres away from Islamabad, to Taliban is the testimony of ever-growing power of Taliban in Pakistan. The purchased peaces in Swat, once an alpine tourist valley in exchange of introduction of Shariat law has stopped the fire throwing mouth of the guns for the time being but the authority of the government has been thoroughly undermined. The lapis lazuli mines of swat valley have reported to be brought under Taliban’s control. The poppy cultivation in many areas in Pakistan by the Jihadists and Taliban is also adding to their coffers. According to one estimate Taliban controls more than 2/3rd of the illegal arms and drug trade which is approximately 3-4 trillion US dollars. Such is the economic and military strength of these elements.
The advance of Taliban is thus undeterred and unchecked. In fact in the entire FATA, major parts of Baluchistan and Waziristan, govt writs are not running. The situation is such that if one fine morning Islamabad itself is captured by the Taliban, no one should take it as surprise. Thus the political, security and economic situation in Pakistan is ripe for such things to happen. One thing is amply clear that the days of Zardari are fast running out. Even if this time Military takeover is averted, the situation in Pakistan is worsening day by day and getting out of control of the establishment.
Taking into consideration both the developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the security situation in India is likely to be seriously threatened। How far after all are our borders from these areas? T.V channels telecasted that Taliban is coming! Is it only a TRP driven rhetoric or do we really face such a situation, needs to be contemplated.

IMPACT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON INDIA- India has been the softest target of Pakistani militants, right from its birth as an independent nation in 1947. We all know and it is too obvious and simple a proposition to be discussed that the humiliating defeat of Pakistan at the hands of India thrice has forced it to switch over to proxy war and subsequently low intensity war in Indian territory. The ongoing terrorist activities in India are handiwork of Pakistan and it is proven beyond a shadow of doubt.
The subjugation of Swat valley to the Taliban is of special significance with respect to India. An unholy nexus developed between Al-Qaida and Taliban in Afghanistan in order to fight against the Americans. This nexus gradually grew and flourished and took the shape of international terrorism. Many experts in this field believe that all other small or big terrorist organisations in one way or the other are logistically linked with this grand alliance of Al-Qaida and Taliban.
The figures of terrorist attacks in India and for that matter elsewhere in the world have undergone a huge qualitative and quantitative change. The mechanism as well as intensity has enhanced.
With the swat coming to the Taliban’s hegemony, this nexus has found a new base in Pakistan which is of immense strategic importance. Swat is hardly 100 kms away from Islamabad and roughly 70 Kms away from Peshawar. It these distances are calculated Indian capital New Delhi is hardly 758 kms away from Islamabad and Lahore only 427 kms. Obviously our western command will be very near to the swat valley. Pakistan has developed intermediate and short range missiles like Abdali, Ghaznavi, both short range, Ghauri, Ghauri I, II, medium range Ghauri III (ICBM) Shaheen, Shaheen I, II and III etc.
Swat is just a sojourn of Taliban and Al-Qaida duo and they will consolidate their position here. Unfortunately, the command and control system of these missile and nuclear warheads are in the hands of military rather than civilian govt. It is a well known fact that there is one another unholy nexus between ISI and terrorists organisations. Thus terrorists, ISI and military trio nexus has negated all the efforts of reconciliation. This has been revealed none other than by Nawaz Sharif himself regarding Kargil war.
It is in this perspective and situation, the recent developments in Pakistan is of serious concern for India. A democratic, stable, prosperous and non-fundamentalist Pakistan is in India’s interest.
With the Talibanisation of this strategic territory of swat valley, the above mentioned threats are looming large on India. The security situation in Kashmir is likely to further worsen. The terrorist influx into Indian Territory will increase. Kashmir went to poll and a democratically elected govt under the west educated CM came to power. The peace process is moving forward with more and more people are coming to mainstream and its testimony was witnessed in huge turnout in the last Assembly election. Peace and democracy are enemies of terrorists, therefore; this situation is likely to be threatened seriously.
If the situation in Pakistan is allowed to go to nadir, the grip of Taliban and other such forces would grow stronger and can seriously jeopardise the security of this Nation.
Any complacency on our part in this regard can prove to be disastrous। Shiv Shanker Menon was in USA to meet his counterpart Hillary Clinton. He has held wide ranging dialogue with his counterpart and many others in America. He has rightly said that the Afghanistan problem should be viewed and resolved in an integrated fashion. He meant thereby that any diplomatic or strategic manoeuvring or retreat without taking into India’s stand would be disastrous and would meet with fiasco. India has rightly objected to Holbrooke’s reported attempt to drag Kashmir into his mission. Fortunately Holbrooke too could perceive Indian’s mood and categorically stated that Kashmir is not an areas US wanted mediation. However India has to be too vigilant and pro-active vis-a-vis developments in its North West neighbours. Parvez Musaraff speech at India conclave only a few days ago smacked of Pakistan’s development. He wanted to incite Indian Muslims sentiment against the establishment. Thank to rebuff by Maulana Madni. United we stand divided we fall, though sounds and old and obsolete rhetoric, is the need of hour.

WHAT STEPS INDIA SHOULD TAKE NOW- The existence of Pakistan has become a problem not only for India but also for the whole region. Madeline Albright has rightly described it as Somalia of the region. It has become a failed state and will let many others to sink also. The ongoing so called peace process and composite dialogue are not going to solve the problem. The attitude of Pakistan towards has not changed and is not likely to change also. The so called investigation in 26/11 Mumbai attacks is the recent example of Pakistan’s lackesaidial and delay tactics attitude. Ajmal Kasab’s confessional statements and confession footage aired on Geo TV in Pakistan has cleared all the doubts but still Pakistan is not prepared to come to terms. In the given circumstances India needs to take recourse to some decisive and drastic diplomatic and military steps. Hot pursuits into Pakistan borders and demolition of training camps are some of the most desired steps. The soft attitude of India has been taken for granted by our neighbours as well as terrorists. Time has come that we should not only break the diplomatic relation with Pakistan but take recourse to other options available in accordance with the provisions of internal law. But breaking Pakistan as a Nation is not an acceptable proposition. It is against the principles of international law as well as Geneva Convention. Pakistan has a right to remain as a Nation but it does not have a right not to allow others to live like this. A happy, prosperous, peaceful and stable democratic Pakistan is as important for India as it is for an average and common Pakistanis.

DO WE NEED NEW INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY?

ARCHITECTS OF CHANGE OR STATUS QUO?

The World economic crisis is not a fiction but a reality now, which everyone including Americans has accepted it in the present form. Every crisis has to be faced and solutions thereof have to be explored. The great depression of 1930s and subsequent the 2nd World War had plummeted the world economy into bottomless nadir. In order to explore the ways and means to tackle it, the Bretto-Wood conference was held.(‘Bretton Wood system, 1944’ of monetary management came into being after a meeting attended by 730 delegates from 44 allied Nations who gathered in Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton wood, New Hampshire on 22nd July, 1944.
The agreement reached therein led to establishment of two important financial institutions viz IMF and IBRD. This ‘duo’ played very important roles with respect to economic and financial order of the world thereafter. Although, this system sought to establish a just and equitable global financial order, it was hijacked by US and some European countries right from the outset. The IMF and IBRD (it later became 5th Wing of World Bank) failed to serve the interests of the entire globe, especially poor and developing nations. The succession list of Managing Directors suggests that no Asian has ever been made MD of IMF. These figure suggests that how the IMF is working and how is the discrepancy.)
Although it was not a grand success, it ushered in a new era of global financial order. Keynes, the famous economist on the name of which the Keynesian theory is named, has suggested creation of a global reserve currency called ‘Bancor’ whose value was to be determined by a basket of about 30 commodities including gold. The aim was to protect the global currency against any vulnerability to vicissitudes of any single currency. This arrangement went on smoothly till 1971, but after US-Vietnam war when Americans were under tremendous financial chaos, the system was overturned and after that gradually US dollars assumed the role of global currency, though it was officially never announced or accepted like this. Till then US dollar is the hard global currency and according to information available as many 2/3rd of the official foreign exchange reserves of national governments are in dollars.
So far as the ongoing financial meltdown is concerned, it is assuming alarming proportions globally. World leaders may accept it or not but in terms of its magnitude, it is not less than the great depression of 1930s. Economists and financial experts may call it with different nomenclature, some experts call it economic tsunami and other economic slow or meltdown, but the after-effects and pains emanating from it, does not seem different owing to this different nomenclature. It would however be financially naive to prescribe remedies for what had happened, because, it is easy to write ‘prescription in retrospection’. But certainly, this does not mean that no inference is drawn from this ‘economic catastrophe’.
It would be however be wastage of time to further analyse the causes and circumstances which led to this fiasco, but it would be great injustice to the economic history also, if some glaring aberrations and maladies of this financial order are not enunciated and diagnosed. ‘Crisis is the engine of change’; therefore, this crisis would also bring about changes in the global financial order, an order which came into existence after ‘Bretton-wood conference, It is therefore; when the global economy is facing the threat of recession and global financial order has failed, the demands are being made not only by the leaders of the developing nations but also by developed nations like UK and France to change the global financial order.
LONDON SUMMIT- G-20- The summit which was held in London to discuss the affects of aftermath of world economic crisis and steps to tackle it, many people called it as the 2nd Bretton-Wood conference and expectations were soaring in hype. There was euphoria all around but it also burst like the ‘housing bubble’ which was precursor of the ongoing crisis. The world leaders specially the members of G-7 like Britain, Germany, France and America were vertically divided. Germany and France were of the opinion that the screws of financial institutions should be further tightened because what they thought, and to some extent they are correct also, that the ‘excessive financial leverage’ and ‘bottomless greet’ of these institutions are the root cause this crisis. USA and UK on the other hand, were averse to it and pleaded that tightening of screws would mean reversal of process of free market economy which is the basic of the capitalist economy. Anyway, the latter prevailed and under their pressure nothing tangible could emerge out of this much published and hyped summit. Well it was not a failure too.
ISSUES RAISED AND DECISIONS TAKEN IN LONDON G-20 SUMMIT-
1. It was decided that 1.1 trillion dollar would be pledged to aid the ailing world economy in order to revive it. This measure was bitterly opposed by countries like France and Germany.
2. The member nations agreed to triple the existing resource of IMF from 250 billion USD to 750 billion USD.

3. But the most important issue which was raised in this summit was the issue of‘NEW INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY’ china had raised this issue well before the summit could begin in April, 2009. In fact the governor of people’ bank of china Zhou Xioachun had raise the issue that the world now requires a new globally accepted new international currency. China wants that the USD be replaced by Special drawing rights (SDRs). It is pertinent to mention here that USD has never been officially accepted as world currency and in Bretton-Wood conference it was agreed upon that USD would be
This demand of china caused a stir in the world politico-economy because it is nothing short of determined challenge to the established financial hegemony of Americans over the world. USA was quick to respond and rejected this proposal out rightly. But this demand was again raised by china in the summit and found support of countries like India, Russia, and Brazil etc.
USA, in a smart manoeuvre, formed an alliance with China and termed it G-2. USA with sky soaring public debt can hardly afford to antagonise Asian dragon. China with a huge FOREX of more than 2 trillion USD is a power to reckon with. It has having 1.1 trillion USD worth US treasury bills and China has repeatedly asked the Obama administration to take guarantee of these bills, a request which is of much humiliation for Americans. It is just like a situation when a money lender comes to your house and seeks guarantee of the loan he had given to you.
Under the prevailing circumstances the US government or for that matter the world financial order cannot defer this demand for infinite period of time.
Many countries and many respectable economists are of the opinion that USA has been printing dollars to pay off its debts in tern causing inflationary trends across the globe. After all the worst ever crisis did originate in USA and being exported to the rest of world including the poor Africans which have yet to taste the fruits of prosperity. This unfettered financial regime must go and be replaced by a universally accepted and more transparent convertible global currency so that the monopolistic and hegemonic US dollar era come to an end. This would be perhaps the best achievement we could have in this ‘financial tsunami’




SUGGESTED CHANGES IN PROPOSED NEW GLOBAL FINACIAL ORDER (PNGFO)-Now the wheel has turned and no one can prevent change of guard. Following changes can be made so that the PNGFO fulfils aspirations of billions of under-nourished and starved people across the world-
1. IMF and World Bank’s functioning should be overhauled to make them more democratic. Voting rights of member countries should be changed and ‘bossism’ of west should go. ‘Each Nation equal vote’ theory should be enshrined into.
2. Appointments in IMF especially on the post of Managing Director (MD) should be made in a more transparent manner so that poor nations should also get a ‘comfortable say’. The system of nomination to President of World Bank by US President should be done away with.
3. World Bank and its different organisations should also undergo radical changes. The basis of percentage of voting in World Bank should be changed so that developing nations should have a ‘greater say’ in fund distribution and other administrative matters. In nut shell steps to evolve mechanism of, what Dr. Man Mohan Singh says ‘substantial increase in multilateral institutional funding of economies’ should be taken.
4. Some short of ‘global financial regulatory body’ may be set up to ensure proper monitoring of global monetary health and to ‘inject curative drugs’ when necessary. The fate of global market can no longer be left in the hands of elements of ‘excessive financial leverage enjoyed by greedy speculators and fund managers.’
5. United Bank of Switzerland (UBS) or Swiss Bank has been depository of hundreds of trillions dollars from across the world. Corrupt politicians and big business men have used ‘Banking Act, 1934 of Switzerland’ in their favour, because this law enables this Bank to maintain secrecy with respect to money deposited into it. Tons of gold deposited during ‘Nazi’s Nuremberg trial’ can play vital role in tiding over this crisis. Time has come to amend or repeal this law altogether, so that the ‘rich men from poor nations’ cannot drain the wealth and make the citizen to suffer. According to data of Swiss Banking Association about 1456 billion dollar of Indians has been deposited in UBS; followed by Russia 470 billion USD, UK 390 b USD, Ukraine 100 billion USD, China 96 b USD.
6. Radical changes are required in WTO also. Protectionism and favouritism should be done away with. The present food crisis is likely to be metamorphosed into ‘global food crisis’ if not addressed to immediately. The ‘bio fuel’ and US role on this issue is going to create an unprecedented situation in the world very soon. It is allowed to ‘go unabated’ will be more devastating that this economic crisis also. The humanity has to decide that whether ‘vehicles would be allowed to move at the cost of poor man’s stomach’.
7. The unequal distribution of wealth and prosperity has resulted into creation of a number of economic blocks in the world. SAFTA, NAFTA, IBRA, ASEAN, SAARC, OPEC, OIC, EU etc are manifestations of growing tendencies of group-ism and bloc-ism, which ultimately are proving hindrance to free flow of trade and commerce, harming the world at last. If PNGFO addresses all such issues, such groups and blocs would render useless and prosperity would transcend to all sections and all territories across the globe.
8. If we see the graph (GDP of India, China, America etc), we find that the 16th, 17th and even 18th centuries were the time of India and China, the Asian giants. Hopefully, history would repeat itself and ‘this duo’ would occupy the driving seat of the future ‘International financial institutions’. Permanent membership in Security Council to countries like India, Brazil, Japan and Germany should be given so that this world forum may not arbitrarily be used in one country’s favour and against other.
9. The West’s honeymoon with ‘west type liberal and free economy and American type democracy’ seems to be on the verge of divorce, therefore; world is set to emerge with new set of ‘politico-strategic-economic ideologies’ based on weltgeist, which is more equitable and less discriminatory. Market is a good servant but bad master, therefore; regulation and restriction on servant is essential.
10. Prioritisation of development has to be rescheduled, after all in spite of all sorts of sky soaring achievements, Bread, Cloth and Shelter’ would remain on the top of the list. No civil society can afford to ignore the equitable distribution of ‘these basics’ otherwise, the social fabric will tatter like what is happening today.

PRESIDENTIAL OR PARLIAMENTARY FORM OF GOVT?

(WHY DO NOT YOU COME TOGATHER?)

Dr Man Mohan Singh said in New Delhi, while interacting with female journalists, that he is not as good orator as Advani is, but Advani is not fit for becoming PM of this Nation. Plethora of surveys coming on TV channels and print media are presenting pictoral graphs of popularities of Man Mohan and Advani. Well, a very few takes it seriously because most of them are conflicting to each other. Moreover, the type of questionnaire which are reported to have been asked from the people, themselves smack elements of biasness. For instance, how can one judge that Mr or Mrs X or Y or Z are the only candidates of a particular posts. In fact it is mockery of the entire serious issue involved in the democratic process.

Anyway the question is that who heads the nation. A man who has not even been elected by common people and voters? or a person who is running the election on his name. In fact when election process is over, the entire mandate and people's verdict is lost in political manoevering for getting the magic numbers in the Parliament. Ironically only those personalities play this nefarious game who never fights elections. What a mockery of the democracy.

Why do'nt we think interms of reshaping our democracy. Let the people directly elect the man who lead our nation. The back door entry in the house has vitiated the entire political mileu, therefore it should either be closed or contitution be amended that only a person can be nominated who has won loksabha atleast for one time. 

We can also think interms of electing the Head executive directly, yes I mean by Presidential form of govt. Let the people elect their leader directly. He, after being elected can form his or her govt. You see the irony. Man Mohan Singh is very good economist, an honest politician, but unfortunately not a good statesman.Advani, on the other hand is very good orator, statesman and administrator but is stigmatised as non-secular. Is it not a fatal combination that both of them are in the same cabinet. It is possible only when the above mentioned system is adopted. You take the example of Bihar. Nitish is proving a good administrator but the type of political system which we have, he has to bow down before such elements which is not suited to governance. After all the government has to rest on the requisite numbers of MLAs.

Time has come that we should ponder seriously interms of reshaping our political system. Why do not we start a national debate on it, afterall democracy means people's choice which rests on popular will. We can held a plebecite on this issue also. I am sure that the nation will vote in favour of a change.

CODIFY THE MODEL CODE OF CONDUCT ITSELF

GIVE SOME TEETH IN ITS JAWS

Constitution of India has bestowed the responsibility of conducting election on the Election Commission of India (ECI) under article 324. This article provides for ‘Superintendence, direction and control of elections to be vested in an Election Commission.—(1) The superintendence, direction and control of the preparation of the electoral rolls for, and the conduct of, all elections to Parliament and to the Legislature of every State and of elections to the offices of President and Vice-President held under this Constitution shall be vested in a Commission (referred to in this Constitution as the Election Commission)’

Thus the ECI has been given constitutional status so that it could conduct the election in a free, fair and peaceful manner. The independence of the Commission has been guaranteed under 324(5) of the constitution as it reads ‘Provided that the Chief Election Commissioner shall not be removed from his office except in like manner and on the like grounds as a Judge of the Supreme Court and the conditions of service of the Chief Election Commissioner shall not be varied to his disadvantage after his appointment.

Election is the pivot and corner stone of democracy; therefore it has to be conducted in a free, fair and peaceful manner. For this purpose, the Parliament enacted in 1951 the Representation of People Act and subsequently conduct of election rules to this effect was also framed in 1961.

India went on poll for the first time and it was a huge success both in terms voters turn out and peacefulness. India made tryst with destiny in the real sense of the term as dreamed by Nehru in his famous midnight speech on 14 August, 1947.

After few years, the ECI issued an order to regulate the activities of the political parties and their candidates and also to take punitive actions for violations if any. 

The ECI, in exercise of the powers conferred on it under article 324 of the Constitution, section 29A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 (Act 43 of 1951) and rules 5 and 10 of the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961 made an order called the Election Symbols(Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968.

This step of ECI was a milestone in the electoral history of Indian democracy in the sense that it laid the foundation stone of model code of conduct. After every election, parliamentary or state legislative, the ECI felt the need to add more teeth into its jaw and gradually some sort of a set of regulatory guidelines with regard to political parties especially those in power and ministers, officers etc was required to be framed.

First step towards evolution of a set of code to regulate and monitor the activities related to the process of election was taken by T.N. Seshan in 1991, when he issued a set of instructions called Model code of conduct or MCC. Although this set of instructions did not have any legal or statutory backing, it was advisable on part of political parties, particularly those in power, officials related to conduct of poll etc to adhere to these instructions. This is how the seed of the present day model code of conduct or MCC was sown. There was a lot of hue and cry as to whether or not ECI or for that matter CEC can issue such advisory or instruction or not and if whether it can have some statutory effect at all.

Legal luminaries may be divided on this issue but the ruling of Apex court in this regard is worth mentioning.

In 1978 itself five Judges constitutional bench of the Supreme Court held in Mahinder Singh Gill versus CEC AIR 1978 ‘ the constitution contemplates a free and fair election and vests comprehensive responsibilities of superintendence, direction and control of the conduct of elections in the election commission. This responsibility may cover powers, duties and functions of many sorts, administrative or other, depending on the circumstances.’

Thus the apex court cleared all doubts whatsoever with regards to the powers and functions of the ECI in matters of conduction of a free and fair election. It is perhaps due this fact the framers of the constitution have made provisions in article 329 of the constitution for debarment from interference by courts in matters of elections. 

Even then the matters of dispute did arise especially when Sehan played tough on the political parties. Keeping in view of the growing tendencies of parties in power to take undue advantage of being in power, the ECI inserted in 1994 (Notification. No. O.N. 42(E) 18th February, 1994). a new section called section 16A in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968. In fact the insertion of this new section marked the beginning of the process of giving statutory and legal touch to the Model Code of Conduct or MCC. By virtue this section, the ECI assumed power to withdraw recognition of a recognised political party for its failure to observe model code of conduct or follow lawful directions and instructions of the commission. This is how the model code of conduct in its present form came into being.

Even after insertion of the above provision in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968, the model code of conduct could not be made a statute, perhaps because the said order itself in a way was an executive order issued by the ECI by virtue of powers conferred on it by article 324 and Acts enacted therein. 

In fact, the notification issued to this effect itself says ‘in exercise of the powers conferred by article 324 of the Constitution 1[read with section 29A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 (43 of 1951) and rules 5 and 10] of the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961.

This MCC therefore, remained exposed to judicial scanning. The first legal opportunity to examine this code came in 1997, when a petition was filed in Punjab and Haryana HC challenging the EC powers which it drew by inserting section 16A in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968. The Court dismissed the petition and upheld the validity of the amendment made in the said order. The court observed that EC can issue directions to the govt and ask them to follow the Model Code of conduct. The court further said that the EC is entitled to take such steps for the conduct of free and fair election. Clarifying the confusion as to what would be the date from which the MCC would come into vogue; the court said the commission can invoke this MCC even before the issuance of notification of dates of polls also.

In 2000, the Union govt moved to the Apex court against the ruling of the EC regarding the date of Model code of conduct coming in force after the above order of Punjab and Haryana High court, and sought a favourable decision from the apex court. The legal battle went on between the govt and the ECI. In the mean time a compromise was reached between the EC and Union govt with regards to the date from which the MCC to come in force and eventually the Union govt withdrew the application from the apex court.

As per this compromise reached between the Union govt and EC, it was agreed upon that the EC would announce the poll schedule two weeks prior to the notification of the election and the code will came into force from the date the EC announces the schedule.

After this arrangement the model code of conduct comes in force with immediate effect after the announcement of schedule of polls.

CATEGORIES OF MODEL CODE OF CONDUCT- the model code of conduct thus is a compendium of circulars and instructions issued by EC invariably before every election and contain dos and don’ts. It is generally categorised into General conduct, Meetings, Processions, poll day, Polling Booth, Observers, Parties in power and some questionnaire. 

Although model Code of conduct as such is not enforceable as it lacks any legal vertebra, it directs the officials especially DEOs to lodge FIRs as and when instructions under this code are violated. The ECI directs the concerned authorities to lodge cases under different penal provisions of prevailing national or local laws.

MODEL CODE OF CONDUCT AND IPC- In Indian Penal Code (IPC) for instance, a separate chapter IX A has been inserted in 1920 by Election Laws ( amendment) Act, 1920 (Act 30 of 1920). This chapter contains section 171 only but over a period of time, depending upon exigencies; sub-sections have been added to it time to time. As on now, this section 171 contains nine (9) sub-sections i.e. 171-A- 171-I. Two amendments have so far been made, one in 1975 adding clause(a) and (b) in sub-section A of section 171 and other in 2003 wherein a provision in section 171-D was made to enable duly authorised persons to cast proxy votes.

Thus for most of the violations of MCC, cases are registered under the provisions of this chapter of IPC.

Similarly violating prohibitory orders invoked under section 144 of Criminal Procedure Code of 1974, cases under section 188 of IPC are registered which is a cognizable but bailable offence. This law has become almost toothless and people make mockery of it because even if you violate the prohibitory orders, police would have to set you free as soon as you are taken into custody. In fact cases are registered under this section 188 for any kind of act of disobedience of order issued by a public servant who is legally authorised to promulgate such orders. Therefore, technically speaking, if the model code of conduct is violated, FIRs can be lodged u/s 188 of IPC also because the ECI is empowered to issue or promulgate such instructions by virtue of powers conferred on it under Article 234 of Indian Constitution.

Apart from above mentioned sections, cases are also registered for violating model code of conduct in sections other than chapter IX of this code depending upon the nature of offence.

WALL PANTING AND POSTER PASTING- The wall panting or poster and pamphlet pasting on walls are also prohibited as per the instructions of MCC subject to certain conditions. Raising hoarding and banners are also prohibited. If such things come to the notice of the concerned authorities cases are required to be registered. Problem sometimes arises that under which law and sections do these cases be registered? The EC has furnished a list that instances for which cases under Defacement of Public Property Act should be registered. This is a local law and almost every state govt has its own law related to defacement of property. For instance in Delhi there is one Delhi Prevention of Defacement Act, 2007, in W.B there is one W.B Defacement of Property Act, 1976, in Bihar we have Bihar Prevention of Defacement of Property Act, 1985 etc. Thus, for every state there is a separate law. In some states it is cognizable and non-bailable whereas in others it is bailable and non-cognizable. It causes lots of technical problems for the ECI to issue one uniform direction to all the States. Similarly for use of laud speakers, we have a plethora of Acts and rules. Almost every state has a separate law or rule regarding the use of laud speakers. 

Under the above circumstances the enforcement of MCC in letters and spirits often becomes difficult. The officials have to use discretion and it is rightly said that discretion begets discrimination. 

MODEL CODE OF CONDUCT AND RP ACT 1951- in order to help ECI to conduct a free and fair election as enshrined in article 324 of the constitution, the parliament enacted a comprehensive law called Representation of People Act, 1951. In fact it contains provisions to regulate the activities and conduct of both political parties as well as poll officials. It is therefore can be said the precursor of MCC. If a glance at this law is made, it clearly stipulates the provisions related to violation of MCC. These provisions are inserted in PART VII and titled as CORRUPT PRACTICES AND ELECTORAL OFFENCES. The chapter-I of this Part contains provisions related to Corrupt Practices and has one section 123 only. CHAPTER-III of part-VII of this Act is titled ‘Electoral Offences’ and contains sections like 125-Promoting enmity between classes in connection with election, 125A- Penalty for filing false affidavit, etc., 126-Prohibition of public meetings during period of forty—eight hours ending with hour fixed for conclusion of poll, section 127-Disturbances at election meetings, section 127A-Restrictions on the printing of pamphlets, posters, etc., section 128-Maintenance of secrecy of voting.

Last but not the least is section 8 of RP Act which deals in disqualification on conviction for certain offences. Sub-section 3 of this section says ‘ A person convicted of any offence and sentenced to imprisonment for not less than two years [other than any offence referred to in sub-section (1) or sub-section (2) shall be disqualified from the date of such conviction and shall continue to be disqualified for a further period of six years since his release.’

Sub sections (1) and (2) of section 8 contain a list of offences in which quantum of punishments is less than two years but still then the convicted persons are liable to be disqualified. 

NEED OF A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION LAW ENLISTING MCC- In the above mentioned situations, the RP Act of 1951 has become almost obsolete especially due to amendment made in section 41 of Criminal Procedure Code which now prohibits arrests for an offence, the quantum of punishment for which is less than seven years. The plethora of penal laws, rules and orders with regard to violation of MCC has become a vexed problem both for the election related officials as well as for the political persons. Many a time acts of disobedience are committed due to non-acquaintance of laws pertaining to a particular action. Moreover what is the use of such directions or code which themselves are not codified. It is therefore advisable on part of the govt as well as ECI to take steps in this regard and enact a comprehensive legislation incorporating therein all relevant provisions connected with entire gamut of election processes.

Till date, all offences related to violation of model code of conduct are dealt in accordance with the provisions of Criminal Procedure Code, it therefore take very long time in reaching a case to the logical conclusion. The proposed legislation as discussed in above paragraphs, therefore should be enforced by a special rule also. Meaning thereby that special processes and special courts should be evolved so that these offences are tried and reached to logical legal conclusion. The present day scenario is that everyone believes that nothing happens in such cases. Even the officials are of the view that file some cases to escape the apprehended wrath of the ECI, once the election process is over everyone tends to forget about these cases. In fact, this notion about the ECI and cases of violation of its directions are very detrimental to our democracy and therefore this state of affairs must be changed. The concept of 'speedy trial' in some selected cases has been a very successful exercise in the state of Bihar.The percentage of conviction in relation to the national average has gone up in a short span of time. The cases under Arms Act, 1956 and Prevention of Corruption Act are being disposed off at a fast pace. The number of convictions in Bihar has risen to a spectacular proportion. This concept can be utilised in this matter also. After all, elections and democracy are the twin pillars of our political institutions which ought to be protected against any decay and degeneration.

WILL G-20 BE 2ND BRETTON WOOD?

(WIIL YOU CARRY ME TOO ?)

Will the forthcoming G-20 be 2nd Bretton wood or the media hype will collapse like the financial architecture of the west including America? It will be unravelled within a couple of days from now.

All developed nations seems divided on the issue as to what strategy should countries adopt so salvage the sinking economy. The Anglo-American lobby is of the view that all nations including the developing third world countries should imitate and prescribe for stimulus packages in order to inject liquidity into the economy. Before Obama, Bush has also enacted TARP in order to rejuvenate the ailing US economy. The 700 Billion dollars rescue and bailout package has sunk after making initial ripples. The 800 plus billion dollars 2nd rescue and rehabilitation Act enacted by Obama is yet make its healing effect felt. 

UK has already unveiled 786 US dollar rescue package but it too has failed to give any impressive positive improvement in the economy. Gordon Brown, one the other hand is to face general elections in his country next year. Tony Blair, his predecessor, who has earned a reputation of being a satellite to Bush has made his countries economy only subservient to the USA. His most of the statements used to be in resonance with that of Bush. Brown wants that this legacy of his predecessors to be carried forward. Thus, both Brown and Obama are staunch supporter of the view that the present global economic downturn can be turned around by stimulus packages and injection of more and more money into the financial systems. They advocate for more free trade, more lending by banks and more innovating steps by the financial systems, but conversely in their respective homes, they resort to protectionist measures. 'Buy American clause' in the Obama’s much publicised economic drug therapy to jerk start the terminally paralysed US economy, is an living example of protectionism trade policy. The restriction in H1B visa is another example of similar protectionist attitude of the Americans. The British followed the same trend. British's call 'british factories for britons' augument this trend and it seems that the champions of free trade and free society are scared themselves and are shutting down their own shutters to stop apprehended influx of job seekers.

Germany and France on the other hand are averse to those steps in which more and more money is injected into the economy . Markel is wedded to the idea of tightening the screws of financial institutions. She has blatantly refused the line of treatment prescribed by the duo,Brown and Obama.

Sarkozy also did not favour Obama-Brown’s prescriptions of pumping money into the economy. In fact in the garb of this whole financial and economic muscle flexing, the politics is being pursued that who emerges the leader of the world. Sarkozy and Brown, on the other hand are hornlocked to win the game. Those who win will be the european leader. Thus behind the curtain the issue is that who will lead the world. 

America revealed its unhidden desire to lead the world when Obama reiterated that US is ready to lead the world and the world should follow it. He has forgotten that US is no more in the pre-global recession period. Moreover, this contageion has originated and exported to the rest of the world by none other than the US itself. The unquestioned hegemony of Americans in the field of economic arena is being undermined. It has already under stress. Its treasury bills have been purchased by Asian giant, China. The new term ‘Chimerica’ coined by Niall Ferguson has projected the forthcoming global economy and position of China in it. ‘Together we swim and separated we sink’, a slogan given by Americans has made it clear that Chinese would definitely get a lion’s share, and not dragon’s share in the new emerging global financial order which is likely to emerge out of the G-20 London Summit.

Obama’s assertion that world needs America and so does America, discloses the gravity of situation. US, hitherto the self acclaimed economic and military leader of the world, has started talking about philosophy of coalition, cooperation and partnership. What a huge change of attitude! Continuing its state of inertia, even Obama is not pursuing consensul politics. If you continue to take unilateral decisions and expect that everyone would follow it, is not going to serve the purpose.

America needs world more desperately than ever before, but at the same time, it still wants to drive the vehicle of global economy by itself, a vehicle which met accident ( global economic downturn) due to its recklessness only. We therfore, need to change the driver itself and assume the steering the economic vehicle of the world so that the next journey is safe and it could reach destination. 

What, then we, ought to do at the G-20 summit? The world is standing at the threshold of a new era, a post American era. Let the leadership be changed. Emerging economies of the world, china, India, Brazil, South Africa, Japan, South Korea etc are in the waiting queue. Not only the World financial architecture but in fact the entire world order as whole, need to be changed. After all Obama, himself had said that the change has arrived.

CHINA STAKES CLAIMS IN NEW GLOBAL FINANCIAL ORDER

(WILL CHINA RULE THE NEW WORLD?)

China has demanded that a new global currency should be intruduced in place of US dollars. The Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said that the US dollar should be discontinued with as the global currency. It is pertinent to mention that USD has never been officially accorded status of global currency and it gradually ascended to this position. The Briton Wood Conference of 1944 held in Hamshire of USA which led to establishment of a new global financial order had earmarked gold as yardstick of monetary exchanges. It was however USA unilaterally abrigated this system in 1971 and gradually the entire globe including Europe adopted USD as global currency 

‘Bretton Wood system’ of monetary management came into being after a meeting attended by 730 delegates from 44 allied Nations who gathered in Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton wood, New Hampshire on 22nd July, 1944. 

This agreement led to establishment of two important financial institutions viz IMF and IBRD. This ‘duo’ played very important roles with respect to economic and financial order of the world thereafter. Although, this system sought to establish a just and equitable global financial order, it was hijacked by US and some European countries right from the outset.

The on going global economic crisis and subsequent worldwide recession has forced the world to think for a new global financial order based on more equitable and justifiable rights of nations across the world. The G-20 summit in London on 2nd April, 2009 is perhaps going to the 2nd Bretton Wood which would reshape global financial architecture.

China has emerged as one of the mightiest economic power of the world. The concept of Chimerica is being viewed in this perspective.At present China is holding US treasury bills worth of about 1 trillion dollar, equal to the total GDP of India. In a non-economic termnology, USA has begged money from China to save its ailing economic situation especially financial markets. What a great reversal of situation.This Asian dragon has in a way invaded USA, hitherto world's superpower both militarily and finanially. The growing economic power of China is also menifest in the fact that USA has accepted China's suggestion that both these countries i.e China and USA should form an another group G-2. USA has reported to have accepted China's proposal of holding a separate meeting with USA after G-20 meeting. The unconfirmed report suggests that this G-2 meeting would be held on 14 April, 2009. This acceptance has two global significance. Firstly, it has legitimised the claim of China vis-a-vis world number two economy. Secondly, it has testimonised the fact that USA is desperate enough to accept the Chinese suzerainty over its economy.

China understands its importance in the new world order. It wants a lion's share in the proposed new global financial order. It has started making its jittery felt in the world echelon so that its claim is properly heeded at in the forthcoming G-20 summit to be held in London.

China knows it very well that such demands would not be enthusiastically reciprocated by most of the nations. This is muscle flexing rather than real fight. It is an economic gesture which would pay divident to it. On the other hand India has done so far no exercise in this regard. What would be its agenda in the G-20 summit is also not clearly spelt.Unfortunately, during the summit India would be immensely busy in general elections and no minister, bureacrat or body is interested in even discussing this issue. Ironically the media has so far also not properly discussed this issue. There is no debate whatsoever on this vital issue,an issue which would determine the fate of Nations including India.

China's economy is growing with a considerably good pace.Its forex reserve is in happy situation. It has started staking claims for its share in the global order,alas we could have also thought in this way and could have mustered the courage to say what we want.It is an old Indian saying, only crying child gets milk feed.

CONVICTION VERSUS ELECTION

(WHERE TO BE KEPT?)

COVICTED PERSONS TO BE ALLOWED OR NOT TO FIGHT ELECTION

Sarita Yadav

Election and offence; poll and crime are like twin brothers and go side by side. The question that whether the convicted persons should be allowed to fight election or not has remained ambiguous in spite of clear cut provision to this effect made in Representation of People’s Act. In fact section 8(3) which reads as ‘A person convicted of any offence and sentenced to imprisonment for not less than two years [other than any offence referred to in sub-section (1) or sub-section (2)]shall be disqualified from the date of such conviction and shall continue to be disqualified for a further period of six years since his release.’

Apparently, it appears that the provisions are too simple to be interpreted and therefore should be easily and unambiguously enforced.

With the passage of time, the criminalisation of politics started and more and more numbers of politicians started pitching themselves into electoral fray. The matter came to fore only when the sitting MP or MLAs got convicted by the competent court in which quantum of punishment was more than 2 years.

In 1997 the ECI reiterated its legal stand and directed all the returning officers to disqualify any candidate who remained convicted for more than two years irrespective of status of appeal.

In this very year, this matter came into a legal battle between ECI and J.Jaylalitha. She had been convicted in TANSI case under provisions of prevention of corruption Act (PC Act 1988) for more than three years, therefore in view of the direction of the ECI, her nomination was rejected and she could not fight the election. 

In spite of it she was sworn-in as CM of Tamil Nadu by the Governor, Fatima Bibi, a retired SC Judge. There were lot of legal battle and finally she had to quit till her conviction was stayed. Supreme Court however ruled that anyone can be appointed as CM of a state as per article 164 of the constitution but the matter remained unresolved that whether the convicted person would fight election or not.

This matter remained unresolved and hardly any person could be disqualified by the ECI from fighting election on the ground of conviction in accordance with the provisions of RP Act.

This issue again come in light when sitting MP of BJP and cricket star Navjot sidhu was convicted by the Punjab and Haryana High court in December 2006 under section 304 of IPC for 3 years. Sidhu resigned and subsequently bye election was announced. Sidhu sought to fight the election again. The matter was taken to the Supreme Court and the apex court gave reprieve to sidhu and temporarily stayed his conviction, thus siddhu fought election and won.( Navjot sidhu vs state of Punjab and others appeal (cri) 59 of 2007. 

The stay of conviction by appellate court in general is interpreted in favour of the convict and nominations of such candidates are accepted by the RO. 

This ruling of the apex court in Navjot Sidhu case has opened a Pandora box vis-a-vis conviction versus elections.

In the present general election 2009 for constitution of 15th Lok Sabha, so many convicted persons have either filing nominations or aspire to fight elections. Sanjay Dutt, the film star, Md Sahabuddin, Surajbhan, Pappu Yadav, all sitting MPs from Bihar have been convicted by courts. Now all of them are on bails. Md Shahabuddin has been granted bail only two days ago by Patna High court. He has however been denied from fighting elections. Sanjay Dutt has already been convicted under Arms Act, 1956 for which minimum quantum of punishment is 7 years. Thus Dutt’s case is also a fit case of disqualification from fighting election. In UP the mafia don Bablu Srivastava has also been convicted but he has not been granted bail. The question is that whether he should be allowed to fight the fray if he gets bail. If yes, then how people like Abu Salem, Kasab, Afzal etc will be prevented and disqualified from fighting elections.

In UP and Bihar names like Anand Mohan, Muktan ansari, Atik ahmed, Raja bhaiya etc have either been convicted or facing trials for offences like murder, attempt to murder etc, most likely many of them would be successful in fighting election due to the prevailing situation which is far from satisfactory. Lawyers like Prashant Bhusan categorically say that the judgement of Apex court in sidhu’s case was not correct. In fact this judgement has become a case of precedent. Ours is a law of precedent and the judgement passed by the higher judiciary becomes as good as law itself. Taking the advantage of this provision, the criminals make mockery of the entire system. 

Coming to the crux of the matter, legal issue involved in these cases is that whether stay in conviction should be treated as acquittal. If the provision of the Representation of People’s Act, 1951(section 8(3)) is taken into account, it is clear that once the person is convicted, he will disqualified and cannot fight election for the next 6 years after his release.

The legal luminaries are vertically divided on this issue. One school of thought is of the opinion that a person cannot be held guilty till the last legal option available to him is exhausted. It means that a person cannot be said to have been convicted if he has filed an appeal before the superior court and the court has accepted it for hearing. Some legal experts however say that acceptance of petition for admission and suspension of conviction is two different and separate things. They further maintain that if the conviction is suspended only then the person can be said not guilty or convicted. 

The problem in our country is that if this proposition is accepted, hardly any criminal can be prevented from fighting elections because in India the provisions of appeal, in different nomenclature like SLP, LPA Single Bench, and Double Bench etc are numerous and they can go on years and years before all options are exhausted. In fact taking advantage of this very provision, large number of criminals succeeds in fighting elections and makes a mockery of section 8(3) of R.P.Act, 1951.

The other side of the story is that if this provision is implemented in Toto, large number of political activists would be deprived of their political rights to fight elections, because instances of fabrication of false cases against political rivals by party in power are abundant. It is therefore a balance has to be strike and ensure that the criminals do not fight elections. 

The time has come that we should make suitable amendments in RP Act because the provision of 2 years imprisonment for disqualification has become obsolete after amendment in section 41 of Criminal Procedure Code which prohibits arrest by Police in a case in which imprisonment is less than 7 years. The RP Act should be made an integrated, comprehensive and complete law for election matters which may incorporate provisions of model code of conduct also, because right now we do not have any special law for model code of conduct and this code is nothing but a compendium of circulars and instructions issued by ECI time to time. Model code of conduct as such is not enforceable in the court of law until it is reinforced by other penal provisions prevailing in different parts like IPC, Public property defacement act, Laud speaker Act etc.